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Atlanta Dream v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlanta Dream (Local)
Prediction 66.34%1.51fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -5.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.53%66.35%66.35%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.4773.53%69.66%69.44%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 33.66%2.97fair odd
EV +0.987%
Edge +0.329%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%33.65%33.65%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.812.773.0039.22%35.62%36.10%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Dream (Local): 66.34%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 33.66%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.987%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV +0.987%E +0.329%K +0.494%G +0.005% | 2.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.50%EV -0.023%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -0.696%E -0.236%K -0.357%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-24 18:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -0.696%E -0.236%K -0.357%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-24 18:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -0.696%E -0.236%K -0.357%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -5.80%E -4.08%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -0.696%E -0.236%K -0.357%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 18:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.13%E -5.09%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.696%E -0.236%K -0.357%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -1.71%E -0.584%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -1.71%E -0.584%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.38%E -0.820%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.38%E -0.820%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.38%E -0.820%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.13%E -5.09%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.38%E -0.820%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-24 18:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.06%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-23 05:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.06%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.06%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.80%E -4.08%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.06%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.80%E -4.08%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.06%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.48%E -1.69%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -5.75%E -2.05%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.75%E -2.05%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -6.08%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -6.08%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 18:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.95%EV -5.14%E -3.59%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%EV -6.76%E -2.44%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 12:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 12:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 13:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.13%E -5.09%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-24 18:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -2.48%E -1.69%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -8.44%E -3.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -8.44%E -3.10%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.81%E -2.63%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.11%E -3.37%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.80%E -4.08%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.11%E -3.37%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.80%E -4.08%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.11%E -3.37%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-24 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.47%E -3.11%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.80%E -4.51%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-24 17:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%EV -9.78%E -7.19%K -27.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.78%EV -14.16%E -5.55%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 67.04% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.96% | 0.1% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-05-24 16:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-05-24 17:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-24 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-05-24 18:50 |