Language:English
Atlanta Dream v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlanta Dream (Local)
Prediction 68.63%1.46fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.04%68.74%68.68%70.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4475.19%72.21%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 31.37%3.19fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.110%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%31.26%31.32%33.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.053.3535.71%33.01%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Dream (Local): 68.63%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 31.37%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -5.97%E -4.36%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV +5.08%E +1.52%K +2.16%G +0.110% | 2.8% | 2026-08-05 22:58 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -5.97%E -4.36%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV +5.08%E +1.52%K +2.16%G +0.110% | 2.8% | 2026-08-05 22:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.76%E -0.890%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 22:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.76%E -0.890%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 22:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.76%E -0.890%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 22:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.76%E -0.890%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.76%E -0.890%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.76%E -0.890%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 22:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.70%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 22:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.23%E -2.29%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 22:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 18:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.60%E -3.31%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 21:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 21:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 21:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.23%E -2.29%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -4.95%E -1.63%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-05 22:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.97%E -4.36%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -5.27%E -1.74%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.54%E -1.79%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.54%E -1.79%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 21:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -3.23%E -2.29%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 22:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.60%E -3.31%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 22:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 21:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 22:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 22:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -3.92%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -6.21%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -6.52%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 22:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.46%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.54%E -1.79%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.54%E -1.79%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -8.72%E -6.56%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -8.72%E -6.56%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -9.03%E -3.11%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-05 22:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 22:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.17%E -0.813%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.49% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.51% | 1.4% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.57% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43% | 2.0% | 2026-08-05 21:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 23:00 |