The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Atlanta Dream v Phoenix Mercury

2026-08-05 23:00 UTC — WNBA

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Dream (Local)

Prediction 65.34%1.53fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -6.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.91%65.25%65.42%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.451.4871.43%68.63%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 34.66%2.89fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%34.75%34.58%36.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8039.22%36.95%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlanta Dream (Local): 65.34%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 34.66%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.80, with an expected value of -2.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.95%E -1.05%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-04 21:15
GTbets1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 09:00
Betway1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 21:25
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 13:05
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:29
Unibet (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:30
Unibet (NL)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:29
betPARX1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:29
Bally Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:30
Svenska Spel1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:29
ATG (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.15%E -3.08%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 13:04
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.30%E -2.23%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.15%E -3.08%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 13:04
Bet Right1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.95%E -2.69%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 21:19
Betr (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.95%E -2.69%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 21:20
BetRivers1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.95%E -2.69%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:04
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.95%E -2.69%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:04
DraftKings1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.60%E -3.15%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -2.95%E -1.05%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 22:09
Fanatics1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.26%E -3.63%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.95%E -1.05%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 22:10
FanDuel1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -5.26%E -3.63%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -4.34%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 22:45
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.26%E -3.63%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 22:08
ReBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.14%EV -5.26%E -3.63%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.86%EV -6.07%E -2.24%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 23:04
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.26%E -3.63%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 21:19
TAB1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.26%E -3.63%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 20:59
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 22:35
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 22:35
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 22:35
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 22:10
Hard Rock Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 22:09
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.55%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.45%EV -5.03%E -1.84%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 22:45
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 22:09
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 22:09
Fliff1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.42%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 22:09
betano_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -11.62%E -4.56%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 20:54
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -5.91%E -4.10%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -11.62%E -4.56%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 20:55
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -7.22%E -5.08%K -17.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -9.88%E -3.80%K -6.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-04 22:10
PMU (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.39%EV -7.87%E -5.58%K -19.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV -11.62%E -4.56%K -7.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-04 21:29
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.52%E -6.09%K -21.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-04 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-08-04 21:25
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-04 20:40
Polymarket1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%2.1%2026-08-04 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%7.0%2026-08-04 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%7.0%2026-08-04 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%7.0%2026-08-04 23:05