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Virginia Cavaliers v NC State Wolfpack
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Virginia Cavaliers (Local)
Prediction 71.01%1.41fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.13%70.86%70.97%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.351.341.3876.34%74.10%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
NC State Wolfpack (Visit)
Prediction 28.99%3.45fair odd
EV +1.47%
Edge +0.421%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%29.14%29.03%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.173.153.5033.90%31.52%31.75%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Virginia Cavaliers (Local): 71.01%; NC State Wolfpack (Visit): 28.99%. For NC State Wolfpack (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +1.47%E +0.421%K +0.589%G +0.009% | 3.8% | 2026-02-24 22:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV +0.022%E +0.006%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-24 22:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV +0.022%E +0.006%K +0.009%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-24 22:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.43%E -0.420%K -0.595%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 15:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.43%E -0.420%K -0.595%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-24 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.14%E -3.07%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.88%E -0.859%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-24 23:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -4.85%E -3.62%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -2.88%E -0.859%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-24 23:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -4.85%E -3.62%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -2.88%E -0.859%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-24 23:52 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.15%EV -4.14%E -3.07%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%EV -3.46%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-24 23:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.43%E -2.52%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-24 23:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.14%E -3.07%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-24 15:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.14%E -3.07%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-24 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.40%EV -6.98%E -5.33%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.60%EV -5.20%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-24 23:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-24 21:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.78%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-24 15:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.68%EV -4.85%E -3.62%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.32%EV -6.36%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-24 22:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.43%E -2.52%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-24 22:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-24 23:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-24 23:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.23%E -2.26%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-24 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.43%E -2.52%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.68%E -2.75%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-24 22:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.43%E -2.52%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.68%E -2.75%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-24 22:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.27%E -4.75%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.68%E -2.75%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-24 23:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.27%E -4.75%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.68%E -2.75%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-24 23:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.12%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-24 22:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.12%E -3.27%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-24 23:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.55%EV -4.85%E -3.62%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.45%EV -11.28%E -3.69%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-24 23:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-24 21:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-24 22:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.56%E -4.18%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.02%E -4.34%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-24 22:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -2.01%E -1.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -14.47%E -4.91%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-24 21:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.31% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.69% | 0.2% | 2026-02-24 23:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-02-24 23:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73% | 1.0% | 2026-02-24 23:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-02-24 23:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-02-24 23:54 |