Language:English
Iowa Hawkeyes v Michigan Wolverines
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Iowa Hawkeyes (Local)
Prediction 22.35%4.47fair odd
EV +0.592%
Edge +0.132%
Kelly +0.169%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.19%22.34%22.38%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.964.294.304.5025.25%23.30%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michigan Wolverines (Visit)
Prediction 77.65%1.29fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -15.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.30%77.66%77.62%78.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.221.211.2483.33%82.14%82.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iowa Hawkeyes (Local): 22.35%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 77.65%. For Iowa Hawkeyes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.592%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.592%E +0.132%K +0.169%G +0.001% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 00:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.50%E -3.65%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -1.64%E -0.373%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.14%EV -2.54%E -0.582%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.86%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-06 00:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -2.76%E -0.635%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -4.50%E -3.65%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 23:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -2.76%E -0.635%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 23:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 23:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 23:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 22:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.50%E -3.65%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-05 23:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.50%E -3.65%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.88%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 23:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.00%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.00%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -5.00%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-05 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -6.11%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.72%E -3.00%K -15.49%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 23:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -7.23%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.35%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-05 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.35%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-05 22:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.35%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV -9.47%E -2.34%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.00%EV -6.05%E -5.00%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 00:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.58%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 08:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.58%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.58%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.27%E -4.32%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 22:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.58%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.58%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.82%E -5.69%K -34.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-06 00:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.70%EV -11.48%E -2.90%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.30%EV -4.50%E -3.65%K -19.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 23:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73% | 0.0% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 23:30 |
| Novig◎ | 4.61I 21.69%NM 21.47% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.53% | 1.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.63% | 1.7% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.63% | 1.7% | 2026-03-06 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.63% | 1.7% | 2026-03-06 00:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 2.0% | 2026-03-06 00:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.42% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |