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Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denver Nuggets (Local)
Prediction 81.99%1.22fair odd
EV -0.790%
Edge -0.653%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.30%81.90%82.17%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.2188.50%85.72%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dallas Mavericks (Visit)
Prediction 18.01%5.55fair odd
EV +8.05%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.130%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.97%18.10%17.83%21.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.215.256.0023.09%19.18%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denver Nuggets (Local): 81.99%; Dallas Mavericks (Visit): 18.01%. For Dallas Mavericks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.55. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.05%E +1.34%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +8.05%E +1.34%K +1.61%G +0.130% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +3.55%E +0.617%K +0.747%G +0.026% | 3.6% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.11%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.71I 17.51%NM 16.89%EV +2.83%E +0.495%K +0.600%G +0.017% | 3.7% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.71%E -4.96%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +2.65%E +0.464%K +0.563%G +0.015% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -7.35%E -6.50%K -56.53%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV +2.65%E +0.464%K +0.563%G +0.015% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.97%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 17.03%EV +1.75%E +0.309%K +0.376%G +0.007% | 3.9% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.77%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.62I 17.79%NM 17.23%EV +1.21%E +0.215%K +0.261%G +0.003% | 3.3% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.87%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.61I 17.83%NM 17.13%EV +1.03%E +0.183%K +0.223%G +0.002% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +0.846%E +0.151%K +0.184%G +0.002% | 4.1% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -0.955%E -0.174%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-26 01:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -0.955%E -0.174%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 01:59 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -0.955%E -0.174%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 01:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -0.955%E -0.174%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -0.955%E -0.174%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -0.955%E -0.174%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV -2.76%E -0.510%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.76%E -0.510%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.76%E -0.510%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -2.76%E -0.510%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 02:01 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.10%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 17.90%EV -4.20%E -0.789%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-26 02:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -4.56%E -0.860%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -4.56%E -0.860%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -4.56%E -0.860%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -4.56%E -0.860%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -4.56%E -0.860%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -5.46%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -5.46%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.71%E -4.96%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.46%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.71%E -4.96%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.46%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.71%E -4.96%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.46%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -6.36%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -7.35%E -6.50%K -56.53%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -6.36%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-26 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.16%E -1.60%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -2.43%E -2.04%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.07%E -3.48%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.96%E -1.99%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-26 01:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -11.76%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -11.76%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -3.25%E -2.75%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -11.76%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -4.89%E -4.22%K -30.56%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -11.76%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -5.71%E -4.96%K -38.06%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -11.76%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -2.43%E -2.04%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -12.66%E -2.61%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -0.790%E -0.653%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-26 01:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV -6.53%E -5.73%K -46.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -17.16%E -3.73%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-26 02:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -1.61%E -1.34%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -18.96%E -4.21%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -1.61%E -1.34%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -22.02%E -5.09%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -1.61%E -1.34%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -22.02%E -5.09%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.83% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.17% | -0.1% | 2026-03-26 01:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 0.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 0.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 0.3% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 0.7% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.85% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 17.15% | 1.4% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.97% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 17.03% | 2.1% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66% | 2.9% | 2026-03-26 02:10 |