Language:English
Žalgiris v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Žalgiris (Local)
Prediction 48.79%2.05fair odd
EV +0.501%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.472%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.91%48.87%48.79%50.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.941.952.0654.95%51.66%51.28%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 51.21%1.95fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.870%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.33%51.13%51.21%53.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.841.851.9257.47%54.28%54.05%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Žalgiris (Local): 48.79%; Real Madrid (Visit): 51.21%. For Žalgiris (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.501%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.91%EV +0.501%E +0.243%K +0.472%G +0.002% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.09%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-20 16:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -2.91%E -1.46%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 12:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.40%E -1.72%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.40%E -1.72%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 12:58 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 14:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.35%E -2.76%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.35%E -2.76%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -1.67%E -0.870%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-20 17:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.21%E -1.70%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 12:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.33%E -3.30%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 16:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 12:27 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 15:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 15:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 12:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 15:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.82%E -4.34%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 13:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 12:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-20 15:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.30%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.30%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -9.74%E -5.27%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -2.69%E -1.42%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.88%EV -11.21%E -6.16%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.12%EV -10.89%E -6.26%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.62% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38% | 1.8% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87% | 3.4% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.58% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.29% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12% | 11.9% | 2026-03-20 13:00 |