L’École des cotesFrançais
Žalgiris v Real Madrid
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Žalgiris (Local)
Prévision 48.79%2.05cote équitable
EV +0.501%
Avantage +0.243%
Kelly +0.472%
Croissance +0.002%
avec la cote maximale 2.06
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.91%48.87%48.79%50.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.821.941.952.0654.95%51.66%51.28%48.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Real Madrid (Visiteur)
Prévision 51.21%1.95cote équitable
EV -1.67%
Avantage -0.870%
Kelly -1.82%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.92
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.33%51.13%51.21%53.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.741.841.851.9257.47%54.28%54.05%52.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
1 opérateur propose un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.
Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.91%EV +0.501%E +0.243%K +0.472%G +0.002% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.09%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-20 16:40 |
| William Hill | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -2.91%E -1.46%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 12:09 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.40%E -1.72%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 16:55 |
| BetMGM | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.40%E -1.72%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 12:58 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| FanDuel | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Unibet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| Coolbet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 16:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| 888sport | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| Betsson | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 14:24 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| ReBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 00:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.35%E -2.76%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.35%E -2.76%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -1.67%E -0.870%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-20 17:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.21%E -1.70%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 12:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.33%E -3.30%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 16:54 |
| Bovada | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 12:27 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 15:34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 15:40 |
| theScore Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 12:30 |
| GTbets | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 15:35 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.82%E -4.34%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| Coral | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 13:00 |
| Neds | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 12:59 |
| TAB | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-20 15:15 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.30%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.30%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Everygame | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -9.74%E -5.27%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -2.69%E -1.42%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.88%EV -11.21%E -6.16%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.12%EV -10.89%E -6.26%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.62% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38% | 1.8% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Matchbook | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87% | 3.4% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (1)
Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.
| Opérateur | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.58% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.29% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12% | 11.9% | 2026-03-20 13:00 |