La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Žalgiris v Real Madrid
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Žalgiris (Local)
Predicción 48.79%2.05momio equitativo
EV +0.501%
Ventaja +0.243%
Kelly +0.472%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.91%48.87%48.79%50.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.821.941.952.0654.95%51.66%51.28%48.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Real Madrid (Visitante)
Predicción 51.21%1.95momio equitativo
EV -1.67%
Ventaja -0.870%
Kelly -1.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.33%51.13%51.21%53.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.741.841.851.9257.47%54.28%54.05%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.91%EV +0.501%E +0.243%K +0.472%G +0.002% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.09%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-20 16:40 |
| William Hill | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -2.91%E -1.46%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-19 12:09 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.40%E -1.72%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 16:55 |
| BetMGM | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.40%E -1.72%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 12:58 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| FanDuel | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Unibet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| Coolbet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.38%E -2.23%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 16:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| 888sport | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 12:04 |
| Betsson | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 14:24 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| ReBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| BoyleSports | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.87%E -2.50%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 00:04 |
| BetRivers | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.35%E -2.76%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.35%E -2.76%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -1.67%E -0.870%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-20 17:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.21%E -1.70%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 12:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-20 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.84%E -3.03%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.33%E -3.30%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 16:54 |
| Bovada | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 12:27 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 15:34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 15:40 |
| theScore Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 12:30 |
| GTbets | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 15:35 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.82%E -4.34%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
| Coral | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 13:00 |
| Neds | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.82%E -3.57%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.19%EV -10.38%E -5.93%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-20 12:59 |
| TAB | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-20 15:15 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.30%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.31%E -3.84%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -7.30%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 15:10 |
| Everygame | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -9.74%E -5.27%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -2.69%E -1.42%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.88%EV -11.21%E -6.16%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.12%EV -10.89%E -6.26%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-20 15:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.62% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38% | 1.8% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
| Matchbook | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.13% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.87% | 3.4% | 2026-03-20 17:55 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.58% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.29% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12% | 11.9% | 2026-03-20 13:00 |