Language:English
Saski Baskonia v Real Madrid
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Saski Baskonia (Local)
Prediction 31.01%3.22fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +0.705%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%30.94%31.13%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.773.093.103.3036.10%32.38%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Madrid (Visit)
Prediction 68.99%1.45fair odd
EV -0.652%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.43%69.06%68.87%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4476.92%73.33%73.53%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saski Baskonia (Local): 31.01%; Real Madrid (Visit): 68.99%. For Saski Baskonia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +2.33%E +0.705%K +1.01%G +0.024% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 17:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.33%E +0.705%K +1.01%G +0.024% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.24%E -6.20%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -8.24%E -6.20%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -10.31%E -7.93%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -10.31%E -7.93%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -0.773%E -0.242%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -10.31%E -7.93%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -1.39%E -0.438%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -7.55%E -5.64%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 18:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.32%E -0.738%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -2.32%E -0.738%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.32%E -0.738%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 17:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -2.32%E -0.738%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -7.55%E -5.64%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-03 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.48%E -4.00%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 17:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.87%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -4.80%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-03 17:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -8.24%E -6.20%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.73%EV -6.35%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.27%EV -7.55%E -5.64%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-03 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-03 17:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.03%E -1.43%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-03 17:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-03 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.17%E -4.54%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 18:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.97%E -2.32%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.24%E -6.20%K -24.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-03 17:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 18:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.52%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -6.86%E -5.08%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -9.46%E -3.24%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%EV -0.652%E -0.453%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 17:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -10.08%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -1.34%E -0.939%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 16:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -10.08%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.79%E -3.47%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 18:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.57%EV -14.11%E -5.09%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -3.41%E -2.44%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 18:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-03 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-03 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-03 18:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23% | 3.2% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 18:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.18% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.89% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93% | 11.0% | 2026-04-03 17:00 |