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Real Madrid v Virtus Segafredo Bologna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Madrid (Local)
Prediction 83.95%1.19fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -16.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.30%83.93%83.79%85.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.141.1692.59%88.44%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit)
Prediction 16.05%6.23fair odd
EV +7.55%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.100%
assuming max odds 6.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.21%16.07%16.21%18.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.795.806.7020.00%17.28%17.24%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 83.95%; Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit): 16.05%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.23. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.55%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +7.55%E +1.13%K +1.32%G +0.100% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.14%E -4.55%K -39.53%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +0.325%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.14%E -4.55%K -39.53%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +0.325%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.14%E -4.55%K -39.53%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +0.325%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-05 18:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +0.325%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +0.325%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +0.325%E +0.052%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -0.477%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -0.477%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -0.477%E -0.077%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -2.89%E -0.477%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 19:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -2.89%E -0.477%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 20:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.69%E -0.615%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.69%E -0.615%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -3.69%E -0.615%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -9.34%E -8.64%K -116.70%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -3.69%E -0.615%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.76%EV -3.46%E -3.01%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 5.93I 16.86%NM 16.24%EV -4.81%E -0.811%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-05 19:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -3.46%E -3.01%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV -5.29%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-05 19:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.05%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -5.29%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 19:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 19:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 23:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 10:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -5.98%E -5.34%K -49.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -6.90%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -7.70%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 19:33 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.70%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -8.50%E -1.49%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.62%E -2.26%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -10.11%E -1.81%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 19:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -10.11%E -1.81%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-05 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.71%E -2.13%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 15:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.71%E -2.13%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 16:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.14%E -4.55%K -39.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.71%E -2.13%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 17:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -11.71%E -2.13%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-05 17:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.82%E -6.14%K -61.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -11.71%E -2.13%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-05 19:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -13.32%E -2.47%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 17:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -2.62%E -2.26%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -15.73%E -3.00%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 13:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.46%E -3.01%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -19.74%E -3.95%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 16:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.46%E -3.01%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -19.74%E -3.95%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -19.74%E -3.95%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-05 13:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -19.74%E -3.95%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-05 14:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.30%E -3.77%K -30.71%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -19.74%E -3.95%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-05 14:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 0.2% | 2026-03-05 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-05 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-05 19:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.05% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 1.4% | 2026-03-05 19:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.57% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.43% | 3.2% | 2026-03-05 19:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.86% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79% | 9.8% | 2026-03-05 13:45 |