La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Real Madrid v KK Crvena zvezda
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Real Madrid (Local)
Predicción 72.62%1.38momio equitativo
EV -1.24%
Ventaja -0.910%
Kelly -3.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.28%72.52%72.61%73.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.281.301.301.3678.13%76.70%76.92%73.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
KK Crvena zvezda (Visitante)
Predicción 27.38%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.43%
Ventaja -0.397%
Kelly -0.550%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.23%27.48%27.39%30.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.423.503.6033.33%29.22%28.57%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -1.24%E -0.910%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -12.38%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 10:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.58%EV -3.42%E -2.57%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.42%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-16 17:45 |
| Coral | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.42%E -2.57%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -17.86%E -5.95%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.42%E -2.57%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -17.86%E -5.95%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 10:50 |
| Neds | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.42%E -2.57%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -17.86%E -5.95%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 10:49 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.14%E -3.14%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 16:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.14%E -3.14%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 16:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.14%E -3.14%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-16 17:40 |
| Coolbet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.14%E -3.14%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -6.36%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 09:05 |
| TAB | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -4.14%E -3.14%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -12.38%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 17:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.87%E -3.72%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-16 16:04 |
| Bovada | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.87%E -3.72%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-16 16:05 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.87%E -3.72%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| William Hill | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.87%E -3.72%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.87%E -3.72%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-16 17:45 |
| Unibet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| BetRivers | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:04 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| 888sport | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| Betsson | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 01:24 |
| NordicBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 01:24 |
| Betway | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 23:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.54%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.91%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| TABtouch | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.91%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| PlayUp | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-16 06:10 |
| BetUS | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.18%EV -5.60%E -4.30%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 28.82%EV -12.11%E -3.77%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-16 17:35 |
| FanDuel | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.32%E -4.90%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| Fanatics | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.32%E -4.90%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.91%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 16:20 |
| theScore Bet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.32%E -4.90%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.91%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 12:45 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.32%E -4.90%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 16:24 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.32%E -4.90%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 16:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.32%E -4.90%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.05%E -5.51%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-16 10:15 |
| Everygame | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -7.05%E -5.51%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 16:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.05%E -5.51%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -8.27%E -2.47%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
| GTbets | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -7.05%E -5.51%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.71%EV -8.55%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-16 10:54 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -7.05%E -5.51%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-16 17:05 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.7% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.7% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.7% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| Matchbook | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.00% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.00% | 2.6% | 2026-04-16 18:35 |
| Smarkets | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24% | 2.9% | 2026-04-16 18:40 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.96% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91% | 11.4% | 2026-04-16 10:50 |