Language:English
Real Madrid v Hapoel Tel Aviv
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Madrid (Local)
Prediction 68.80%1.45fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -5.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.14%68.94%68.81%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.361.4275.19%73.02%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit)
Prediction 31.20%3.21fair odd
EV +2.96%
Edge +0.896%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%31.06%31.19%32.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.053.053.3035.71%32.80%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 68.80%; Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit): 31.20%. For Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.96%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 4.4% | 2026-03-23 15:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.39%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.39%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.39%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +1.40%E +0.430%K +0.620%G +0.009% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 08:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -1.10%E -0.347%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-24 19:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 12:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 12:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.74%E -4.19%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.74%E -4.19%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 18:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.74%E -4.19%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.37%E -3.14%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 09:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 09:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%EV -4.37%E -3.14%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%EV -4.53%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-24 14:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.23%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -4.53%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-24 08:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-24 18:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.37%E -3.14%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -5.47%E -1.80%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-24 12:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.30%E -1.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 18:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.68%E -2.63%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 09:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 14:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 14:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 14:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 23:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-24 13:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -2.99%E -2.12%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -7.03%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-24 09:13 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -3.68%E -2.63%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -7.03%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-24 18:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.03%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-24 18:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.68%E -2.63%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.22%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.78%EV -8.90%E -3.05%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-23 14:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 10:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-24 09:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-24 19:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-23 20:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.15%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-24 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.14%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -12.02%E -4.26%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-24 19:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.64%E -4.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.64%E -4.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.64%E -4.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-03-24 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-03-24 19:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-03-24 19:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-03-24 19:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11% | 3.7% | 2026-03-24 19:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.52% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.64% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.84% | 12.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |