La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Real Madrid v Hapoel Tel Aviv
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Real Madrid (Local)
Predicción 68.80%1.45momio equitativo
EV -2.30%
Ventaja -1.62%
Kelly -5.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.14%68.94%68.81%71.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.371.361.4275.19%73.02%73.53%70.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visitante)
Predicción 31.20%3.21momio equitativo
EV +2.96%
Ventaja +0.896%
Kelly +1.29%
Crecimiento +0.038%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.73%31.06%31.19%32.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.053.053.3035.71%32.80%32.79%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 4.4% | 2026-03-23 15:04 |
| 888sport | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.39%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.39%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.49%E -6.39%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.96%E +0.896%K +1.29%G +0.038% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +1.40%E +0.430%K +0.620%G +0.009% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 08:14 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -1.10%E -0.347%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-24 19:40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 12:14 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 12:14 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.74%E -4.19%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.74%E -4.19%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 18:19 |
| Unibet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.74%E -4.19%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:14 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:19 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -1.72%E -0.547%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| DraftKings | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.37%E -3.14%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 16:30 |
| Bovada | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 09:20 |
| Everygame | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 09:15 |
| BetRivers | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.28%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 18:15 |
| ReBet | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%EV -4.37%E -3.14%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%EV -4.53%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-24 14:04 |
| GTbets | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.23%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -4.53%E -1.48%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-24 08:24 |
| Betsson | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 14:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 14:30 |
| TABtouch | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.84%E -1.59%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-24 18:14 |
| Coolbet | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.37%E -3.14%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -5.47%E -1.80%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-24 12:29 |
| 1xBet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.30%E -1.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 18:14 |
| Betway | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.68%E -2.63%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-24 09:15 |
| theScore Bet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-24 14:19 |
| Fanatics | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 14:34 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 14:34 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 23:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.40%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-24 13:39 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -2.99%E -2.12%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -7.03%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-24 09:13 |
| FanDuel | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -3.68%E -2.63%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -7.03%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-24 18:45 |
| SportsBet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.03%E -2.36%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-24 18:44 |
| BetMGM | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.68%E -2.63%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.96%E -2.70%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.22%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.78%EV -8.90%E -3.05%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-23 14:40 |
| TAB | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-23 10:54 |
| PlayUp | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-24 09:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-24 19:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.52%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-23 20:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.15%E -3.52%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-24 18:44 |
| BetUS | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.14%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -12.02%E -4.26%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-24 19:54 |
| Coral | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.64%E -4.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.64%E -4.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
| Neds | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.64%E -4.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-23 10:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-03-24 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-03-24 19:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-03-24 19:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-03-24 19:54 |
| Matchbook | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11% | 3.7% | 2026-03-24 19:54 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.52% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.64% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.84% | 12.5% | 2026-03-23 14:44 |