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Maccabi Tel Aviv v Virtus Segafredo Bologna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Local)
Prediction 71.30%1.40fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -8.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%71.57%71.27%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.331.3680.00%75.67%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit)
Prediction 28.70%3.48fair odd
EV +7.63%
Edge +2.03%
Kelly +2.77%
Growth +0.212%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.15%28.43%28.73%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.303.7533.33%30.14%30.30%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maccabi Tel Aviv (Local): 71.30%; Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit): 28.70%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.63%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -10.16%E -8.07%K -39.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +7.63%E +2.03%K +2.77%G +0.212% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -9.45%E -7.44%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV +6.19%E +1.67%K +2.29%G +0.142% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -9.45%E -7.44%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +3.32%E +0.923%K +1.28%G +0.042% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.452%E +0.129%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.452%E +0.129%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-04-16 17:52 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -10.88%E -8.70%K -43.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV +0.452%E +0.129%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.983%E -0.285%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79%EV -1.56%E -0.454%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 17:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.75%E -2.77%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-16 14:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 14:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 14:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 14:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 02:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.60%E -5.04%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-16 17:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -3.03%E -2.23%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -6.44%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 17:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -3.03%E -2.23%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -6.44%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 17:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.03%E -2.23%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 12:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.75%E -2.77%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 14:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.03%E -2.23%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 02:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 14:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 17:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -6.60%E -5.04%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.98%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.02%EV -8.73%E -2.75%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-16 17:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -9.59%E -3.05%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -9.59%E -3.05%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.86%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.14%EV -12.18%E -3.98%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-16 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.90%E -4.63%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 02:18 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.90%E -4.63%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 02:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.90%E -4.63%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 02:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.3% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98% | 3.0% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69% | 3.2% | 2026-04-16 18:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.96% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91% | 11.4% | 2026-04-16 17:40 |