默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Hapoel Tel Aviv v Paris Basketball

开赛时间： 2026-03-17 15:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

47 家博彩公司 (18 家纳入分析 )

69%

31%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Hapoel Tel Aviv (主队)

预测 69.31%1.44公平赔率

EV -0.880%

优势 -0.615%

Kelly -2.05%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.43

博彩公司预测分布

66.27%69.22%69.51%71.88%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.321.361.361.4375.76%73.36%73.53%69.93%最小值均值中位数最大值

Paris Basketball (客队)

预测 30.69%3.26公平赔率

EV +4.33%

优势 +1.27%

Kelly +1.80%

增长率 +0.078%

假设最高赔率为 3.40

博彩公司预测分布

28.12%30.78%30.49%33.73%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.753.103.103.4036.36%32.22%32.26%29.41%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Hapoel Tel Aviv (主队)：69.31%；Paris Basketball (客队)：30.69%。对于“Paris Basketball (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.26。当时有9家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.40，对应+4.33%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (47 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +4.33%E +1.27%K +1.80%G +0.078%	4.6%	2026-03-17 11:19
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +4.33%E +1.27%K +1.80%G +0.078%	4.6%	2026-03-17 11:19
Unibet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +4.33%E +1.27%K +1.80%G +0.078%	4.6%	2026-03-17 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +4.33%E +1.27%K +1.80%G +0.078%	4.6%	2026-03-17 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +4.33%E +1.27%K +1.80%G +0.078%	4.6%	2026-03-17 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +4.33%E +1.27%K +1.80%G +0.078%	4.6%	2026-03-17 11:19
BetRivers🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	5.5%	2026-03-17 11:18
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -8.50%E -6.44%K -26.58%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	6.1%	2026-03-17 11:19
TABtouch🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -8.50%E -6.44%K -26.58%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +1.26%E +0.382%K +0.548%G +0.007%	6.1%	2026-03-17 11:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.93%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	3.21I 31.15%NM 30.07%EV -1.50%E -0.467%K -0.679%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-17 14:50
FanDuel🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.821%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-16 18:15
Bovada🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.81%E -0.565%K -0.821%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-16 17:56
SportsBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -7.12%E -5.31%K -20.94%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -2.42%E -0.761%K -1.11%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-16 18:15
DraftKings🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-17 10:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-17 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-17 14:54
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.04%E -3.68%K -13.62%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-16 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.04%E -3.68%K -13.62%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-17 14:14
Betsson🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-16 16:15
NordicBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-16 16:15
Fanatics🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -3.34%E -1.06%K -1.55%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 03:10
ReBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.49%EV -5.04%E -3.68%K -13.62%G +0.000%	3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -4.26%E -1.37%K -2.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-17 12:19
William Hill🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.65%E -2.63%K -9.37%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-16 16:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.04%E -3.68%K -13.62%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-17 14:50
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-16 16:09
BoyleSports🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-16 17:29
888sport (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-16 16:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-16 16:09
Everygame🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-16 17:59
Coolbet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.80%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-17 14:40
1xBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.46%EV -2.27%E -1.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 31.54%EV -6.10%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-17 14:45
Marathon Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -6.72%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-17 14:40
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.94%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-17 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.73%E -4.21%K -15.92%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.94%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-16 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.43%E -4.76%K -18.36%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.94%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-17 06:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.81%E -5.87%K -23.67%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.94%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-16 16:14
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.91%EV -7.12%E -5.31%K -20.94%G +0.000%	2.97I 33.67%NM 31.09%EV -8.86%E -2.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-03-17 14:19
GTbets🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -7.12%E -5.31%K -20.94%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 31.16%EV -9.17%E -3.10%K -4.68%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-03-17 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -7.12%E -5.31%K -20.94%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-17 14:20
BetMGM🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -0.880%E -0.615%K -2.05%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-17 14:45
theScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 09:34
TAB🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 14:40
PlayUp🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -11.01%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 14:40
BetUS🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.45%EV -4.35%E -3.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 32.55%EV -12.24%E -4.28%K -6.58%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-17 14:39
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.62%E -5.68%K -8.92%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 14:45
Neds🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.62%E -5.68%K -8.92%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.96%E -2.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.62%E -5.68%K -8.92%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 14:45

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%	1.2%	2026-03-17 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%	1.2%	2026-03-17 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%	1.2%	2026-03-17 14:55
Smarkets◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%	1.7%	2026-03-17 14:55
Matchbook◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%	2.7%	2026-03-17 14:50

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 62.02%	2.87I 34.84%NM 31.12%	13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%	12.0%	2026-03-17 14:40