Language:English
Hapoel Tel Aviv v FC Bayern München
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local)
Prediction 72.69%1.38fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -5.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%72.55%72.73%75.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.301.301.3578.74%76.66%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Bayern München (Visit)
Prediction 27.31%3.66fair odd
EV +6.50%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.146%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.56%27.45%27.27%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.9033.33%29.31%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hapoel Tel Aviv (Local): 72.69%; FC Bayern München (Visit): 27.31%. For FC Bayern München (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.50%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -7.68%E -6.05%K -28.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +6.50%E +1.67%K +2.24%G +0.146% | 4.4% | 2026-09-24 01:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.871%E -0.240%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-24 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.871%E -0.240%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-24 15:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-24 12:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.95%E -5.43%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-24 07:48 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -3.06%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.06%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-24 11:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -3.33%E -0.940%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-24 15:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-24 07:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-24 07:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-23 08:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-23 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-23 15:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-23 15:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.95%E -5.43%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-24 11:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.04%EV -7.68%E -6.05%K -28.45%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.96%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-24 11:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 08:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-24 11:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.52%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-24 08:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-24 13:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-24 11:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-23 08:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -1.87%E -1.38%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-24 08:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -15.34%E -4.95%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.86%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.14%EV -16.44%E -5.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-24 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -18.08%E -6.03%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-24 08:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -18.08%E -6.03%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-24 08:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -18.08%E -6.03%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-24 08:48 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.3% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13% | 2.4% | 2026-09-24 15:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.98% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98% | 11.4% | 2026-09-24 08:50 |