默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Hapoel Tel Aviv v FC Bayern München

开赛时间： 2026-09-24 16:00 UTC

最终结果： Hapoel Tel Aviv 84–86 FC Bayern München

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

42 家博彩公司 (16 家纳入分析 )

73%

27%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Hapoel Tel Aviv (主队)

预测 72.69%1.38公平赔率

EV -1.87%

优势 -1.38%

Kelly -5.33%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.35

博彩公司预测分布

69.28%72.55%72.73%75.44%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.271.301.301.3578.74%76.66%76.92%74.07%最小值均值中位数最大值

FC Bayern München (客队)

预测 27.31%3.66公平赔率

EV +6.50%

优势 +1.67%

Kelly +2.24%

增长率 +0.146%

假设最高赔率为 3.90

博彩公司预测分布

24.56%27.45%27.27%30.72%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

3.003.413.403.9033.33%29.31%29.41%25.64%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Hapoel Tel Aviv (主队)：72.69%；FC Bayern München (客队)：27.31%。对于“FC Bayern München (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.66。当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.90，对应+6.50%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (42 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
Bovada🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -7.68%E -6.05%K -28.45%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +6.50%E +1.67%K +2.24%G +0.146%	4.4%	2026-09-24 01:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.871%E -0.240%K -0.331%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-24 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.871%E -0.240%K -0.331%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-24 15:45
1xBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.650%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-09-24 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.650%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-09-24 13:35
SportsBet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.95%E -5.43%K -24.84%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.650%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-24 07:48
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -3.06%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-24 13:35
Coolbet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -3.06%E -0.861%K -1.20%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-24 11:25
Pinnacle🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -3.33%E -0.940%K -1.31%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-24 13:35
DraftKings🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-24 15:45
Betsson🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-24 07:49
NordicBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-24 07:50
ReBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-24 13:35
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-23 08:00
888sport🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-23 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-23 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-23 15:04
FanDuel🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.95%E -5.43%K -24.84%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-24 11:20
GTbets🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.04%EV -7.68%E -6.05%K -28.45%G +0.000%	3.44I 29.07%NM 26.96%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-24 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-24 11:25
BetRivers🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:49
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:50
Svenska Spel🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:49
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:50
TABtouch🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 08:00
BoyleSports🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-24 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-24 13:35
Fanatics🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-24 11:24
PMU (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.52%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-24 08:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.77%E -3.64%K -15.40%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-24 13:35
PlayUp🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-09-24 11:25
Paddy Power🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.47%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-23 08:09
BetMGM🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -1.87%E -1.38%K -5.33%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-24 08:49
TAB🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -15.34%E -4.95%K -7.31%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-24 15:55
BetUS🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.86%EV -4.05%E -3.07%K -12.65%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 30.14%EV -16.44%E -5.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-24 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -18.08%E -6.03%K -9.04%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-09-24 08:50
Neds🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -18.08%E -6.03%K -9.04%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-09-24 08:49
Coral🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.32%E -2.50%K -10.06%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -18.08%E -6.03%K -9.04%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-09-24 08:48

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93%	3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%	0.9%	2026-09-24 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93%	3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%	0.9%	2026-09-24 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93%	3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%	0.9%	2026-09-24 15:55
Smarkets◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67%	3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33%	1.3%	2026-09-24 15:55
Matchbook◎	1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%	3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%	2.4%	2026-09-24 15:55

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 65.98%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%	15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%	11.4%	2026-09-24 08:50