Language:English
Fenerbahce SK v Virtus Segafredo Bologna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fenerbahce SK (Local)
Prediction 84.30%1.19fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -20.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.93%84.38%84.27%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1592.59%89.66%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit)
Prediction 15.70%6.37fair odd
EV +7.68%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.101%
assuming max odds 6.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.79%15.62%15.73%19.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.886.156.006.8620.49%16.27%16.67%14.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fenerbahce SK (Local): 84.30%; Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit): 15.70%. For Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.37. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.68%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV +7.68%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.101% | 3.9% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV +7.68%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.101% | 3.9% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 4.1% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 5.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -8.11%E -7.44%K -90.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 6.6% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -8.95%E -8.29%K -111.91%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV +5.96%E +0.883%K +1.04%G +0.062% | 7.4% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +2.03%E +0.313%K +0.370%G +0.008% | 4.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.03%E +0.313%K +0.370%G +0.008% | 5.5% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.03%E +0.313%K +0.370%G +0.008% | 5.5% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +2.03%E +0.313%K +0.370%G +0.008% | 6.3% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +0.463%E +0.072%K +0.086%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -1.89%E -0.303%K -0.360%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-22 10:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -2.68%E -0.432%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.01%EV -3.05%E -2.65%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 6.04I 16.56%NM 15.99%EV -5.19%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.90%E -3.42%K -27.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.74%E -4.19%K -36.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-24 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 09:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 09:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 09:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-25 17:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -5.82%E -0.969%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.92%EV -3.90%E -3.42%K -27.82%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.08%EV -6.60%E -1.11%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -7.27%E -6.61%K -72.67%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.39%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.74%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.74%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.48%EV -4.74%E -4.19%K -36.45%G +0.000% | 5.71I 17.51%NM 16.52%EV -10.37%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.05%E -2.65%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -13.66%E -2.48%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-25 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -13.66%E -2.48%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-24 14:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -13.66%E -2.48%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-24 14:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -6.42%E -5.79%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -13.66%E -2.48%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-24 14:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -16.80%E -3.17%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-25 17:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -18.37%E -3.53%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-25 17:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.05%E -2.65%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -21.51%E -4.30%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-25 15:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.93%EV -3.05%E -2.65%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.07%EV -23.40%E -4.79%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.11% | 1.2% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.53% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47% | 1.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.53% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47% | 1.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.53% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47% | 1.7% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.75% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.25% | 3.2% | 2026-09-25 17:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.55% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33% | 10.3% | 2026-09-24 14:00 |