The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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AS Monaco v Hapoel Tel Aviv

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 17:30 UTC

Final: AS Monaco 105–85 Hapoel Tel Aviv

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Monaco (Local)

Prediction 56.53%1.77fair odd
EV +0.618%
Edge +0.347%
Kelly +0.793%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.89%56.51%56.48%58.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.681.7863.29%59.26%59.52%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit)

Prediction 43.47%2.30fair odd
EV -0.012%
Edge -0.005%
Kelly -0.010%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.58%43.49%43.52%46.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.3050.00%46.50%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AS Monaco (Local): 56.53%; Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit): 43.47%. For AS Monaco (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.618%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV +0.618%E +0.347%K +0.793%G +0.005%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -9.58%E -4.60%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 16:49
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -1.64%E -0.944%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -8.71%E -4.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:14
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:15
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -2.21%E -1.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -7.84%E -3.70%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.77%E -1.61%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.71%E -4.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 17:14
888sport🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.34%E -1.95%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.34%E -1.95%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.34%E -1.95%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:54
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.34%E -1.95%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.71%E -4.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 17:14
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.36%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 16:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -10.01%E -4.84%K -9.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 17:14
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.05%E -6.53%K -13.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 21:39
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.05%E -6.53%K -13.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 21:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.05%E -6.53%K -13.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 21:40
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.47%E -2.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.19%E -0.972%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-17 17:20
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.47%E -2.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 16:54
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.62%E -1.17%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-17 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.06%E -1.37%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-17 17:18
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -3.49%E -1.57%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.36%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:04
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.23%E -2.40%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 17:04
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.23%E -2.40%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 17:05
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -7.40%E -3.48%K -6.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 16:54
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.03%E -3.00%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.71%E -4.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.012%E -0.005%K -0.010%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-17 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.012%E -0.005%K -0.010%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-17 16:54
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.19%E -0.972%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 17:23
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -3.06%E -1.37%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-17 17:25
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.36%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 17:04
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 16:54
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 16:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.53%E -3.04%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 17:04
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.59%EV -5.60%E -3.35%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.41%EV -9.14%E -4.37%K -8.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 17:25
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -4.79%E -2.19%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 17:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -7.30%E -4.45%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.40%E -3.48%K -6.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 17:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -7.30%E -4.45%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.40%E -3.48%K -6.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 17:04
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -7.86%E -4.82%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -0.447%E -0.195%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:54
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.86%E -4.82%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -4.36%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.43%E -5.20%K -13.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.36%E -1.98%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%EV -10.69%E -6.76%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -13.05%E -6.53%K -13.05%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-17 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-04-17 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-04-17 17:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-04-17 17:24
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94%1.9%2026-04-17 17:24
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.78%3.4%2026-04-17 17:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.49%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.42%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%12.3%2026-04-16 16:15