Language:English
AS Monaco v ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AS Monaco (Local)
Prediction 76.27%1.31fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -11.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.81%76.28%76.19%78.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2783.33%80.56%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit)
Prediction 23.73%4.21fair odd
EV +3.24%
Edge +0.745%
Kelly +0.967%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.76%23.72%23.81%27.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.984.004.3529.41%25.11%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AS Monaco (Local): 76.27%; ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit): 23.73%. For ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.24%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -7.72%E -6.38%K -36.75%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV +3.24%E +0.745%K +0.967%G +0.031% | 5.6% | 2026-04-08 16:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +2.05%E +0.477%K +0.622%G +0.013% | 3.9% | 2026-04-08 15:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.19%E -5.03%K -26.92%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.05%E +0.477%K +0.622%G +0.013% | 4.6% | 2026-04-08 17:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -0.320%E -0.076%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-08 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -0.320%E -0.076%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-07 05:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.320%E -0.076%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 23:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.320%E -0.076%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 23:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -0.320%E -0.076%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 23:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -1.27%E -0.305%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-08 13:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -1.27%E -0.305%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-08 13:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.69%E -0.657%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-08 13:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -3.88%E -0.958%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 13:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -3.88%E -0.958%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 13:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.90%E -3.10%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 13:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-08 13:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-08 13:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-08 13:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-08 15:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.19%E -5.03%K -26.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-08 16:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-08 13:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.48%E -7.07%K -42.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.07%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-08 15:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -3.14%E -2.47%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV -6.02%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -6.25%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.14%E -2.47%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 13:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.14%E -2.47%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.14%E -2.47%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 16:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -3.14%E -2.47%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 15:27 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.44%E -1.91%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -6.19%E -5.03%K -26.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -8.63%E -2.24%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -8.63%E -2.24%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-08 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -8.63%E -2.24%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-08 17:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.00%E -2.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-08 13:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-08 13:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.67%E -3.73%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-08 16:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-08 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.95%E -5.70%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.19%E -3.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-08 16:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -5.43%E -4.38%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -14.56%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-08 16:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -3.14%E -2.47%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -19.31%E -5.68%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-08 17:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-04-08 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-04-08 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.5% | 2026-04-08 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 2.2% | 2026-04-08 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 2.6% | 2026-04-08 17:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.73% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.27% | 11.5% | 2026-04-08 16:50 |