The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Saitama Seibu Lions v Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saitama Seibu Lions (Local)

Prediction 42.36%2.36fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.746%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%42.30%42.31%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.222.202.3246.51%45.09%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 57.64%1.73fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.70%57.69%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.641.6964.52%61.13%60.98%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saitama Seibu Lions (Local): 42.36%; Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (Visit): 57.64%. For Saitama Seibu Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.32, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -1.73%E -0.746%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -3.74%E -2.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-06 03:44
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.58%E -1.12%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.74%E -2.24%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-06 03:35
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.58%E -1.12%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.62%E -4.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 03:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -2.58%E -1.12%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.65%E -6.87%K -19.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 03:35
William Hill🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -3.42%E -1.50%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -4.31%E -2.60%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-05 14:55
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.85%E -1.70%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.16%E -1.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-06 03:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.85%E -1.70%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.16%E -1.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-06 03:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.85%E -1.70%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.16%E -1.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-06 03:34
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.70%E -2.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.89%E -2.96%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 03:35
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.70%E -2.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.89%E -2.96%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 03:35
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.70%E -2.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.89%E -2.96%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 03:35
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -4.70%E -2.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-06 03:34
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.54%E -2.49%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.31%E -2.60%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 03:39
MyBookie.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -6.39%E -2.89%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -6.62%E -4.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-06 03:40
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.89%E -2.96%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 23:14
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.62%E -4.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 03:34
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.62%E -4.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 03:35
ReBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.62%E -4.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 03:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.62%E -4.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 03:34
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 03:34
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 03:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 03:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 03:39
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.81%E -3.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.77%E -4.86%K -12.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 03:35
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.66%E -3.51%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.16%E -1.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 03:50
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.08%E -3.73%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.47%E -3.33%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 03:39
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.08%E -3.73%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.47%E -3.33%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 03:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.08%E -3.73%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.47%E -3.33%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 03:40
Bally Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.08%E -3.73%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.47%E -3.33%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 03:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.08%E -3.73%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.47%E -3.33%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 03:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -8.08%E -3.73%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.47%E -3.33%K -8.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 03:39
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.93%E -4.15%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.58%E -1.53%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-05 13:35
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -8.93%E -4.15%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-05 23:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.93%E -4.15%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -8.92%E -5.65%K -15.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 03:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.