The School of Odds
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Chunichi Dragons v Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chunichi Dragons (Local)

Prediction 60.87%1.64fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%61.18%60.76%63.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.541.531.5967.57%65.03%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit)

Prediction 39.13%2.56fair odd
EV +4.10%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +2.47%
Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.36%38.82%39.24%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.382.6645.45%41.09%42.02%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chunichi Dragons (Local): 60.87%; Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit): 39.13%. For Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.64%EV -7.48%E -4.92%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV +4.10%E +1.54%K +2.47%G +0.101%3.4%2026-08-06 08:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +3.71%E +1.40%K +2.25%G +0.083%3.1%2026-08-06 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV +3.71%E +1.40%K +2.25%G +0.083%3.1%2026-08-06 08:35
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV +1.75%E +0.673%K +1.09%G +0.019%3.8%2026-08-06 08:54
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -7.48%E -4.92%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +1.75%E +0.673%K +1.09%G +0.019%4.3%2026-08-06 08:44
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -7.48%E -4.92%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +1.75%E +0.673%K +1.09%G +0.019%4.3%2026-08-06 08:45
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -6.27%E -4.07%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV +0.575%E +0.224%K +0.366%G +0.002%3.8%2026-08-06 08:40
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.09%E -5.36%K -15.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.208%E -0.081%K -0.134%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 08:50
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -9.31%E -6.25%K -19.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -0.208%E -0.081%K -0.134%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 08:34
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.16%E -0.866%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 08:50
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -4.44%E -2.83%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -2.95%E -1.19%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-06 08:25
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.70%E -5.80%K -17.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.12%E -1.68%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-06 08:45
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.44%E -2.83%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.30%E -2.19%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 07:55
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.30%E -2.19%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 07:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.08%E -2.53%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 07:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -6.47%E -2.71%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 07:44
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.44%E -2.83%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 08:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 08:50
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 08:50
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 08:50
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 07:39
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 07:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 07:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.86%E -2.88%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 07:35
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.05%E -3.24%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.03%E -3.42%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-06 07:30
ReBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -6.27%E -4.07%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.03%E -3.42%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-06 08:05
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.03%E -3.42%K -5.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-06 07:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.48%E -4.92%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.03%E -3.42%K -5.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 04:30
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -3.22%E -2.03%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -9.99%E -4.34%K -7.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 16:44
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.88%E -4.49%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.99%E -4.34%K -7.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-06 08:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -8.70%E -5.80%K -17.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -11.95%E -5.31%K -9.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-06 08:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.78%EV -9.92%E -6.70%K -20.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.22%EV -13.90%E -6.32%K -11.59%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-06 08:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.