The School of Odds

Washington Nationals v Houston Astros

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 22:46 UTC

Final: Washington Nationals 3–6 Houston Astros

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Washington Nationals (Local)

Prediction 52.08%1.92fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.04%52.22%53.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.831.831.8856.82%54.64%54.64%53.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Houston Astros (Visit)

Prediction 47.92%2.09fair odd
EV +0.162%
Edge +0.077%
Kelly +0.148%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.82%47.96%47.78%48.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.862.002.002.0953.76%50.11%50.00%47.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets1.84I 54.35%NM 53.18%EV -4.18%E -2.27%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.82%EV +0.162%E +0.077%K +0.148%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-07 22:45
BetUS1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -0.318%E -0.153%K -0.294%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-07 22:34
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -0.318%E -0.153%K -0.294%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-07 20:25
LowVig.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV -4.18%E -2.27%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -0.318%E -0.153%K -0.294%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-07 22:44
BetOnline.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV -4.18%E -2.27%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -0.318%E -0.153%K -0.294%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-07 22:45
Pinnacle1.87I 53.48%NM 52.54%EV -2.62%E -1.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.46%EV -0.797%E -0.385%K -0.745%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-07 22:35
BetAnything1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%EV -3.14%E -1.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%EV -1.28%E -0.620%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-07 20:25
1xBet1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%EV -2.10%E -1.12%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%EV -1.76%E -0.856%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-07 21:40
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.23%E -1.10%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-07 22:35
Bovada1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -5.74%E -3.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -2.71%E -1.34%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-07 22:44
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.19%E -1.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 22:35
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.19%E -1.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 22:35
ReBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -2.62%E -1.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-07 19:44
FanDuel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-06 17:50
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 14:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 05:45
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 14:59
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 22:25
Bet Right1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:25
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 22:24
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 16:58
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:39
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:45
Unibet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Bally Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:44
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 22:39
Neds1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 22:40
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 03:02
Dabble (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 19:40
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.74%E -3.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 22:44
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 18:00
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 18:00
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 18:00
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 18:25
MyBookie.ag1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -3.14%E -1.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -4.63%E -2.33%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 19:49
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.63%E -2.33%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 19:25
Unibet (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -2.62%E -1.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-07 20:50
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:45
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 10:50
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 16:55
NordicBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 14:29
Betsson1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 14:30
LiveScore Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-07 22:45
Virgin Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-07 22:45
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -5.59%E -2.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-07 22:45
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -5.22%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -5.59%E -2.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-07 22:44
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -5.59%E -2.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-07 21:55
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.18%E -2.27%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -6.07%E -3.10%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-07 19:44
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.62%E -1.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 19:44
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 21:05
Unibet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 22:35
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 22:44
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 19:45
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 22:33
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -6.78%E -3.79%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -7.03%E -3.62%K -7.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 22:44
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.46%E -4.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-07 20:20
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.46%E -4.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-07 22:18
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.38%EV -8.35%E -4.74%K -10.98%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -10.86%E -5.84%K -12.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%0.7%2026-07-07 22:45
Novig1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.98%0.9%2026-07-07 22:40
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-07 00:05
Polymarket1.86I 53.76%NM 53.15%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.85%1.2%2026-07-07 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.53%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.47%1.3%2026-07-07 22:45
Matchbook1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%1.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%1.6%2026-07-07 22:45
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%2.6%2026-07-07 22:30
BetOpenly1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%2.8%2026-07-07 22:44