The School of Odds

Washington Nationals v Houston Astros

2026-07-06 22:46 — MLB

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Option 1: Washington Nationals (Local)

Odds
1.6660.24%Min
1.7258.00%Mean
1.7258.14%Median
1.7955.87%Max
Consensus probabilities
54.64%1.830Min
56.85%1.759Max
55.25%1.810Mean
55.24%1.810Median
55.23%1.811IQM
55.28%1.809Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.79 under the IQM model: 55.23%

EV -1.14%Edge -0.635%Kelly -1.44%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Houston Astros (Visit)

Odds
2.0050.00%Min
2.1346.88%Mean
2.1546.51%Median
2.2045.45%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.15%2.317Min
45.36%2.205Max
44.75%2.235Mean
44.76%2.234Median
44.77%2.234IQM
44.72%2.236Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.20 under the IQM model: 44.77%

EV -1.51%Edge -0.686%Kelly -1.26%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

BookmakerWashington Nationals (Local) ▼Houston Astros (Visit)MarginUpdated
1xBet1.79I 55.87% NM 54.80%EV -1.14% E -0.635% K -1.44% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 45.20%EV -2.85% E -1.31% K -2.44% G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-05 18:35
GTbets1.77I 56.50% NM 55.42%EV -2.24% E -1.27% K -2.91% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 44.58%EV -1.51% E -0.686% K -1.26% G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-05 18:15
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50% NM 55.19%EV -2.24% E -1.27% K -2.91% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 44.81%EV -2.40% E -1.10% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 18:15
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50% NM 55.19%EV -2.24% E -1.27% K -2.91% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 44.81%EV -2.40% E -1.10% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 18:15
BetUS1.77I 56.50% NM 55.19%EV -2.24% E -1.27% K -2.91% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 44.81%EV -2.40% E -1.10% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 19:50
TAB1.75I 57.14% NM 55.13%EV -3.35% E -1.91% K -4.46% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.87%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-05 20:50
FanDuel1.74I 57.47% NM 55.38%EV -3.90% E -2.24% K -5.27% G +0.000%2.16I 46.30% NM 44.62%EV -3.30% E -1.53% K -2.84% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-05 19:20
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -3.90% E -2.24% K -5.27% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 18:20
Caesars1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -3.90% E -2.24% K -5.27% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 18:45
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -3.90% E -2.24% K -5.27% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 20:05
DraftKings1.74I 57.47% NM 55.04%EV -3.90% E -2.24% K -5.27% G +0.000%2.13I 46.95% NM 44.96%EV -4.64% E -2.18% K -4.11% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-05 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80% NM 55.41%EV -4.45% E -2.57% K -6.10% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.59%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 18:55
Coral1.73I 57.80% NM 55.41%EV -4.45% E -2.57% K -6.10% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.59%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 18:55
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80% NM 55.06%EV -4.45% E -2.57% K -6.10% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.94%EV -5.09% E -2.40% K -4.54% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 18:54
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -4.45% E -2.57% K -6.10% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.99% E -2.85% K -5.44% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 18:24
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -4.45% E -2.57% K -6.10% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.99% E -2.85% K -5.44% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 18:25
William Hill1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -4.45% E -2.57% K -6.10% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.99% E -2.85% K -5.44% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 19:14
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14% NM 55.56%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.44%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 18:54
Neds1.72I 58.14% NM 55.56%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.44%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 18:54
Bet Right1.72I 58.14% NM 55.44%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 44.56%EV -4.19% E -1.96% K -3.68% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 19:20
Betsson1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.09% E -2.40% K -4.54% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 18:54
NordicBet1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.09% E -2.40% K -4.54% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 18:55
PlayUp1.72I 58.14% NM 55.21%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.12I 47.17% NM 44.79%EV -5.09% E -2.40% K -4.54% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 19:19
SportsBet1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.99% E -2.85% K -5.44% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 18:14
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.99% E -2.85% K -5.44% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14% NM 54.86%EV -5.00% E -2.91% K -6.95% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 45.14%EV -6.43% E -3.08% K -5.90% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 18:55
Fanatics1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.55% E -3.25% K -7.82% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 18:14
888sport1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.55% E -3.25% K -7.82% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:20
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.55% E -3.25% K -7.82% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:20
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.55% E -3.25% K -7.82% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:19
BetMGM1.71I 58.48% NM 55.70%EV -5.55% E -3.25% K -7.82% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.30%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 18:55
ReBet1.69I 59.17% NM 54.81%EV -6.66% E -3.94% K -9.65% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.19%EV -8.22% E -4.01% K -7.83% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 18:20
Fliff1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -7.76% E -4.65% K -11.59% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -1.51% E -0.686% K -1.26% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 18:20
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -7.76% E -4.65% K -11.59% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -3.75% E -1.74% K -3.26% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 19:19
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24% NM 54.64%EV -8.32% E -5.01% K -12.60% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.36%EV -10.46% E -5.23% K -10.46% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-05 18:54
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24% NM 54.64%EV -8.32% E -5.01% K -12.60% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.36%EV -10.46% E -5.23% K -10.46% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-05 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerWashington Nationals (Local)Houston Astros (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.78I 56.18%2.27I 44.05%0.2%2026-07-05 19:00
Novig1.71I 58.48%2.27I 44.05%2.5%2026-07-05 20:45
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%2.27I 44.05%3.2%2026-07-05 19:10
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%2.00I 50.00%10.2%2026-07-05 18:55