Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals v Houston Astros

Início: 2026-07-06 22:46 UTC

Final: Washington Nationals 12–11 Houston Astros

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Previsão 51.03%1.96odd justa
EV -1.52%
Vantagem -0.787%
Kelly -1.63%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.00%51.14%51.05%53.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.761.871.871.9356.82%53.46%53.48%51.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Houston Astros (Visitante)

Previsão 48.97%2.04odd justa
EV -1.07%
Vantagem -0.532%
Kelly -1.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.02

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.81%48.86%48.95%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.881.951.952.0253.19%51.35%51.28%49.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Washington Nationals (Local): 51.03%; Houston Astros (Visitante): 48.97%. Para Houston Astros (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.04. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.02, com valor esperado de -1.07%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.52%E -0.787%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 22:45
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.52%E -0.787%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.52%E -0.787%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 22:45
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.52%E -0.787%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 22:44
Everygame🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.52%E -0.787%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 22:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.26%EV -1.52%E -0.787%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-06 22:45
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%EV -1.07%E -0.532%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-06 22:40
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-06 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -4.99%E -2.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-06 22:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-06 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-06 22:45
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:09
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.54%E -1.33%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:24
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53%EV -3.05%E -1.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%EV -1.07%E -0.532%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-06 21:44
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:45
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:45
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-06 22:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-06 22:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.07%E -2.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:45
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.07%E -2.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:40
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.07%E -2.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:39
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-06 19:34
TAB🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-06 22:42
MyBookie.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-06 19:40
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:39
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:45
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:45
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 20:19
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:44
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-06 22:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -4.58%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.09%E -2.74%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-06 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.74%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.99%E -2.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.53%EV -5.09%E -2.74%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 22:45
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.52%E -1.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 22:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.01%E -2.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 22:25
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.01%E -2.05%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 15:54
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 20:24
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:25
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 22:20
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 22:25
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 22:34
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -5.60%E -3.03%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 22:40
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -6.11%E -3.32%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -3.52%E -1.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -6.11%E -3.32%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -4.99%E -2.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 22:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.62%E -3.62%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 08:14
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.62%E -3.62%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 11:24
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.62%E -3.62%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 19:35
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.62%E -3.62%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 20:19
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.15%E -4.53%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 09:20
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -8.15%E -4.53%K -10.19%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -5.97%E -3.11%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-06 22:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.15%E -4.53%K -10.19%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 22:18
DraftKings🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -10.19%E -5.79%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -2.05%E -1.03%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 22:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX1.96I 51.02%NM 50.88%2.03I 49.26%NM 49.12%0.3%2026-07-06 22:30
Polymarket1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-07-06 22:45
Novig1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-07-06 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-07-06 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-07-06 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-07-06 22:45
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-06 14:00
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.4%2026-07-06 21:25
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73%1.6%2026-07-06 22:45
BetOpenly1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%3.9%2026-07-06 22:44