Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves

Inicio: 2026-09-02 17:05 UTC

Final: Washington Nationals 0–9 Atlanta Braves

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Nationals (Local)

Predicción 43.90%2.28momio equitativo
EV -0.338%
Ventaja -0.149%
Kelly -0.266%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.11%43.77%43.93%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.072.182.192.2748.31%45.97%45.77%44.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlanta Braves (Visitante)

Predicción 56.10%1.78momio equitativo
EV -0.710%
Ventaja -0.401%
Kelly -0.922%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.55%56.23%56.07%57.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.701.701.7762.50%58.83%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Washington Nationals (Local): 43.90%; Atlanta Braves (Visitante): 56.10%. Para Washington Nationals (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.28. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.27, con un valor esperado de -0.338%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -0.338%E -0.149%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-02 17:05
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.22%E -0.541%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-02 14:03
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.22%E -0.541%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.44%E -4.51%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 14:30
theScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -2.09%E -0.939%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -3.51%E -2.04%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-02 13:44
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22%EV -2.53%E -1.14%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78%EV -1.27%E -0.722%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-02 16:55
BetUS🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.53%E -1.14%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-02 16:55
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -2.97%E -1.35%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -1.27%E -0.722%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-02 16:50
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -0.710%E -0.401%K -0.922%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-02 16:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -1.27%E -0.722%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-02 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -1.27%E -0.722%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-02 17:05
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-02 17:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 16:00
ReBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 17:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-02 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.32%E -3.78%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.32%E -3.78%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 15:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.88%E -4.14%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 17:05
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.44%E -4.51%K -11.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 16:55
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.44%E -4.51%K -11.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 16:53
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -8.00%E -4.88%K -12.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:05
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.12%E -5.63%K -14.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -3.41%E -1.55%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.25%E -6.40%K -17.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 17:05
Bovada🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -3.85%E -1.76%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 17:04
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.29%E -1.97%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-02 16:40
BetMGM🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.29%E -1.97%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-02 17:00
Bet Right🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.29%E -1.97%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 17:00
DraftKings🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.29%E -1.97%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 17:05
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.73%E -2.18%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 16:59
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 16:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.39%E -1.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-02 16:49
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -6.88%E -4.14%K -10.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -6.88%E -4.14%K -10.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 17:05
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -1.83%E -1.05%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.95%E -1.71%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 17:05
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.95%E -1.71%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 17:04
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:00
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 16:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:04
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.64%E -2.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.20%E -3.08%K -7.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 17:04
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.32%E -3.78%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 15:59
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.32%E -3.78%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:05
SportsBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -6.05%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.08%E -2.38%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-02 16:54
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.92%E -3.27%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.51%E -2.04%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:00
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.92%E -3.27%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.51%E -2.04%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:00
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.92%E -3.27%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.51%E -2.04%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 17:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -6.92%E -3.27%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -8.56%E -5.25%K -13.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 17:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.80%E -3.72%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.83%E -1.05%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.80%E -3.72%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.95%E -1.71%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 17:00
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.80%E -3.72%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.95%E -1.71%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 17:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.80%E -3.72%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.95%E -1.71%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 17:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -5.76%E -3.43%K -8.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 16:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-09-02 17:00
Novig◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-09-02 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-09-02 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-09-02 17:00
ProphetX◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.33%0.9%2026-09-02 17:05
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%1.1%2026-09-02 17:05
Polymarket◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-09-02 14:30
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.2%2026-09-02 17:00
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%2.5%2026-09-02 16:45
BetOpenly◎2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%4.1%2026-09-02 17:00