Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays v St. Louis Cardinals

2026-07-31 23:08 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Predicción 60.63%1.65momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -1.09%
Kelly -2.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.19%60.77%60.70%62.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.571.561.6266.67%63.89%64.10%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 39.37%2.54momio equitativo
EV +1.57%
Ventaja +0.607%
Kelly +0.991%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.04%39.23%39.30%40.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.432.422.5844.44%41.18%41.24%38.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV +1.57%E +0.607%K +0.991%G +0.016%4.1%2026-07-30 19:00
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -7.84%E -5.16%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV +1.17%E +0.456%K +0.746%G +0.009%4.7%2026-07-30 21:14
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -9.05%E -6.03%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +0.385%E +0.151%K +0.248%G +0.001%5.9%2026-07-30 18:59
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -9.05%E -6.03%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -0.009%E -0.004%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-30 18:59
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 61.26%EV -2.99%E -1.87%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.74%EV -0.403%E -0.159%K -0.263%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-30 19:35
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -1.77%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-30 18:59
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -1.77%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-30 18:59
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -1.77%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-30 18:59
theScore Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.59%E -2.26%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-30 20:55
Unibet (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.41%E -3.47%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 20:00
Bet Right1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.41%E -3.47%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 19:45
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.02%E -3.88%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 20:00
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.02%E -3.88%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 20:05
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 19:45
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 19:45
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.55%E -1.45%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 19:45
Caesars1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.59%E -2.26%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -4.34%E -1.79%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-30 19:59
DraftKings1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -4.20%E -2.66%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%EV -4.34%E -1.79%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-30 20:00
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -1.77%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -4.73%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-30 19:24
Betsson1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.41%E -3.47%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.73%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 19:45
NordicBet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.41%E -3.47%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.73%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 19:45
Betclic (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -6.02%E -3.88%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -5.13%E -2.13%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-30 19:58
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.99%E -1.87%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-30 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.99%E -1.87%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-30 19:59
PointsBet (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.59%E -2.26%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-30 19:00
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.59%E -2.26%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-30 20:05
BetMGM1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.59%E -2.26%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-30 20:00
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.41%E -3.47%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 20:05
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.02%E -3.88%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 19:59
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.02%E -3.88%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.52%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 21:05
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.81%E -3.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.31%E -2.65%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-30 20:05
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -1.77%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -7.49%E -3.19%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -1.77%E -1.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -7.49%E -3.19%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 20:00
ReBet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.23%E -4.73%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.49%E -3.19%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-30 20:00
Unibet (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 60.37%EV -8.44%E -5.59%K -16.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.46%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-30 19:59
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.05%E -6.03%K -18.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -11.43%E -5.08%K -9.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-30 20:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05%0.0%2026-07-30 20:15
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-30 20:00
Novig1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-07-30 21:25
Smarkets1.51I 66.23%NM 60.37%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%9.7%2026-07-30 20:00