Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays v St. Louis Cardinals

2026-08-02 17:38 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Predicción 51.85%1.93momio equitativo
EV -0.971%
Ventaja -0.508%
Kelly -1.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%51.79%51.71%52.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.851.851.9156.18%54.20%54.05%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 48.15%2.08momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.628%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.12%48.21%48.29%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.891.971.972.0552.91%50.69%50.76%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 51.85%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 48.15%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.93. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.91, con un valor esperado de -0.971%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%EV -0.971%E -0.508%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%EV -3.21%E -1.60%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 22:43
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -0.971%E -0.508%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-01 18:10
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -0.971%E -0.508%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-01 19:30
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.49%E -0.784%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.51%E -4.48%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:12
GTbets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.29%E -0.628%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 21:19
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -1.29%E -0.628%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 21:25
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -1.77%E -0.867%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 21:20
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -1.77%E -0.867%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 21:19
TAB1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 22:45
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 18:20
Bovada1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.05%E -1.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 21:04
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 21:29
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 23:10
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 23:14
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 23:15
DraftKings1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.66%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 21:19
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.66%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 21:29
Bet Right1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:10
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:10
Bally Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:10
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:10
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:14
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:15
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.62%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.62%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:30
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.62%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:29
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 18:14
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 22:45
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 22:40
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.03%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 21:20
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.03%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 21:20
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.08%E -2.21%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.03%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 21:19
Unibet (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.60%E -2.50%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:54
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.60%E -2.50%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -5.62%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 21:54
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 21:54
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 21:20
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 20:00
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 21:18
Betsson1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.66%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:28
NordicBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.66%E -2.35%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:28
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:10
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:10
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.62%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 23:14
betano_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 21:55
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 21:58
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 21:52
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.12%E -2.80%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 21:19
Dabble (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -6.67%E -3.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -2.73%E -1.35%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 22:54
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 22:39
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.67%E -3.71%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -5.14%E -2.61%K -5.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 21:25
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 51.76%EV -7.71%E -4.33%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%EV -8.03%E -4.20%K -8.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 23:10
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -7.71%E -4.33%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -8.51%E -4.48%K -9.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 21:55
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -7.71%E -4.33%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -8.99%E -4.76%K -10.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 21:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-01 18:15
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-01 20:50
Novig1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-01 21:35
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%10.0%2026-08-01 21:55