The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Rays v New York Yankees

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 17:45 UTC

Final: Tampa Bay Rays 5–4 New York Yankees

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

61 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Rays (Local)

Prediction 44.30%2.26fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +0.822%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%44.22%44.40%45.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.162.3050.00%46.12%46.30%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Yankees (Visit)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd
EV -0.297%
Edge -0.166%
Kelly -0.376%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.57%55.78%55.60%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.701.7962.11%58.98%58.82%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Rays (Local): 44.30%; New York Yankees (Visit): 55.70%. For Tampa Bay Rays (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.89%E +0.822%K +1.45%G +0.027%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 12:29
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.325%E -0.144%K -0.260%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -1.21%E -0.543%K -0.984%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 17:05
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.21%E -0.543%K -0.984%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.65%E -0.745%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 17:39
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -2.10%E -0.949%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -1.97%E -1.12%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-12 17:20
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -2.10%E -0.949%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 17:33
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -1.41%E -0.797%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.0%2026-04-12 17:39
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -1.41%E -0.797%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.0%2026-04-12 17:39
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 17:34
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 17:39
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 15:50
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.54%E -4.54%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 16:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -2.98%E -1.36%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-12 17:35
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.43%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.43%E -1.57%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 16:55
GTbets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -3.87%E -1.78%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -0.297%E -0.166%K -0.376%G +0.000%1.9%2026-04-12 17:39
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.87%E -1.78%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 17:40
BetUS🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -0.297%E -0.166%K -0.376%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-12 17:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:40
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -0.297%E -0.166%K -0.376%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-12 17:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -0.297%E -0.166%K -0.376%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-12 17:39
ReBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 17:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 17:40
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 15:45
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-12 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.64%E -2.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 15:45
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.64%E -2.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 15:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 15:44
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 15:45
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:39
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 17:35
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 15:55
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.87%E -3.47%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 17:00
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.10%E -4.91%K -12.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 17:32
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -4.75%E -2.21%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -9.21%E -5.65%K -14.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 17:40
LeoVegas🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%EV -5.20%E -2.43%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -9.77%E -6.03%K -15.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 17:40
DraftKings🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -5.64%E -2.65%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -3.08%E -1.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.08%E -2.87%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 17:39
FanDuel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.08%E -2.87%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -6.08%E -2.87%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.84%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.97%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.64%E -2.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 17:39
Dabble (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.97%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.20%E -2.44%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 17:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.97%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.75%E -2.78%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.97%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.31%E -3.12%K -7.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -11.40%E -5.70%K -11.40%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -8.65%E -5.28%K -13.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.27I 44.05%NM 44.23%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.77%-0.4%2026-04-12 17:39
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 44.09%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.91%-0.1%2026-04-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-04-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-04-12 17:40
Polymarket◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-04-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-04-12 17:40
ProphetX◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%1.1%2026-04-12 17:40
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%2.3%2026-04-12 17:40
Novig◎2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-04-12 17:40
Matchbook◎2.04I 49.02%NM 44.11%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.89%11.1%2026-04-12 17:40