Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs

2026-07-30 18:16 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St. Louis Cardinals (Local)

Predicción 52.09%1.92momio equitativo
EV +1.58%
Ventaja +0.809%
Kelly +1.66%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%51.98%52.12%52.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.841.831.9556.50%54.48%54.64%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 47.91%2.09momio equitativo
EV -0.829%
Ventaja -0.401%
Kelly -0.775%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.19%48.02%47.88%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.901.971.982.0752.63%50.65%50.51%48.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV +1.58%E +0.809%K +1.66%G +0.026%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-29 20:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.505%E -0.265%K -0.555%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.49%E -4.45%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 20:00
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.505%E -0.265%K -0.555%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.49%E -4.45%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 20:00
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.505%E -0.265%K -0.555%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.49%E -4.45%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 20:00
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.03%E -0.540%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.97%E -4.72%K -9.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.03%E -0.540%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.97%E -4.72%K -9.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-29 20:00
1xBet1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%EV -1.55%E -0.819%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%EV -2.27%E -1.11%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-29 21:15
Pinnacle1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -3.63%E -1.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -0.829%E -0.401%K -0.775%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-29 21:25
MyBookie.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.63%E -1.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.70%E -1.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-29 21:44
DraftKings1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.63%E -1.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 21:40
Bet Right1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.15%E -2.26%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-29 20:20
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.22%E -1.60%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-29 20:05
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -3.70%E -1.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-29 20:10
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 21:20
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 20:15
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 21:20
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 21:44
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-29 21:40
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 21:45
Betsson1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 20:20
NordicBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 20:20
Betr (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 20:20
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 21:45
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -4.67%E -2.55%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -7.54%E -3.90%K -8.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-29 21:45
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.19%E -2.85%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-29 20:35
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.19%E -2.85%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.14%E -2.60%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-29 20:35
Betclic (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.71%E -3.16%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.62%E -2.85%K -5.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 21:45
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:05
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:05
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:20
ReBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:35
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:20
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:20
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.18%E -2.09%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 20:50
betano_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 20:20
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.24%E -3.46%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.58%E -3.37%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 20:15
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -7.28%E -4.09%K -9.33%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -8.02%E -4.17%K -8.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-29 21:45
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -7.80%E -4.41%K -10.13%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -8.49%E -4.45%K -9.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-29 21:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-29 21:30
Novig1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-29 21:30
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-29 21:30
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%3.2%2026-07-29 21:30
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%9.8%2026-07-29 21:45
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.41%GTbets 1.95 (51.5%) / Pinnacle 2.07 (48.5%)Ver detalles
St. Louis Cardinals (Local)Chicago Cubs (Visitante)Margen
GTbets 1.95 (51.5%)Pinnacle 2.07 (48.5%)+0.410%