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Seattle Mariners v Kansas City Royals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Seattle Mariners (Local)
Prediction 56.13%1.78fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.15%56.09%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.701.701.7560.61%58.96%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kansas City Royals (Visit)
Prediction 43.87%2.28fair odd
EV -0.849%
Edge -0.376%
Kelly -0.674%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%43.85%43.91%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.2647.62%45.69%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 56.13%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 43.87%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.26, with an expected value of -0.849%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%EV -1.78%E -1.02%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%EV -1.73%E -0.771%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -1.78%E -1.02%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -2.34%E -1.34%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 01:42 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -2.34%E -1.34%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-03 01:41 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -2.90%E -1.68%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-03 01:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -0.849%E -0.376%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-03 01:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-03 01:42 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -4.80%E -2.21%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-03 01:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.02%E -2.35%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.87%E -3.75%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -1.29%E -0.572%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -3.92%E -1.79%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-03 01:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.36%E -2.00%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.80%E -2.21%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.24%E -2.42%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-03 01:46 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:46 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.87%E -3.75%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.58%E -2.70%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.87%E -3.75%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.29%E -0.572%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-03 01:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.80%E -2.21%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.24%E -2.42%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-03 01:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.14%E -3.04%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.24%E -2.42%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-03 01:48 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.17%E -0.971%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.71%E -3.40%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-03 01:38 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:48 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:42 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.27%E -3.75%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.67%E -2.64%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 01:47 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.39%E -4.48%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.48%E -1.58%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86% | 1.8% | 2026-05-03 01:41 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04% | 2.1% | 2026-05-03 01:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.61% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.39% | 3.3% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19% | 4.9% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79% | 6.0% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79% | 6.0% | 2026-05-03 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79% | 6.0% | 2026-05-03 01:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.43% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.57% | 10.0% | 2026-05-03 01:44 |