La escuela de los momios

Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros

Inicio: 2026-04-12 20:11 UTC

Final: Seattle Mariners 6–1 Houston Astros

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Predicción 62.12%1.61momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -3.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.85%61.95%62.50%63.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.541.541.5866.67%64.89%64.94%63.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Houston Astros (Visitante)

Predicción 37.88%2.64momio equitativo
EV +0.757%
Ventaja +0.285%
Kelly +0.456%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.67%38.05%37.50%40.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.342.512.502.6642.74%39.82%40.00%37.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67%EV +0.757%E +0.285%K +0.456%G +0.003%2.5%2026-04-12 18:20
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 63.33%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.67%EV +0.757%E +0.285%K +0.456%G +0.003%2.5%2026-04-12 18:15
Everygame1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV +0.378%E +0.143%K +0.229%G +0.001%2.7%2026-04-12 18:19
GTbets1.54I 64.94%NM 63.16%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.84%EV -0.000%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 18:15
BetUS1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -0.758%E -0.289%K -0.468%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 18:15
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 62.59%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.41%EV -1.14%E -0.436%K -0.706%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-12 19:55
PointsBet (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.52%E -0.583%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-12 18:20
ReBet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.52%E -0.583%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-12 18:19
MyBookie.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.52%E -0.583%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-12 18:39
theScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.52%E -0.583%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-12 18:25
1xBet1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%EV -1.85%E -1.17%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%EV -2.27%E -0.881%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-12 18:25
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -2.27%E -0.881%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-12 20:05
Caesars1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -2.27%E -0.881%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-12 18:15
SportsBet1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%EV -6.20%E -4.10%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -3.03%E -1.18%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 20:05
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 18:20
Bet Right1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 19:20
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 19:10
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 19:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 19:09
Hard Rock Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 19:45
Coolbet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.58%E -3.67%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 20:00
Betr (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.20%E -4.10%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 20:00
Unibet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 19:55
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 20:00
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 20:00
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.41%E -1.34%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 20:00
Bovada1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -3.79%E -1.49%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 19:22
Svenska Spel1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -2.47%E -1.57%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 18:35
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.71%E -2.39%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-12 18:20
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.71%E -2.39%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-12 18:24
Marathon Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:20
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:35
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.95%E -3.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 18:20
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 19:54
Dabble (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.82%E -4.55%K -13.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.30%E -2.12%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 19:20
Betsson1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.06%E -2.44%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 18:20
NordicBet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.06%E -2.44%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 18:20
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -1.85%E -1.17%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-12 20:10
Unibet (NL)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.47%E -1.57%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-12 18:25
Unibet (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.47%E -1.57%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-12 18:25
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 19:20
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
Unibet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
betPARX1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
Bally Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.20%E -2.94%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.95%E -3.27%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 18:34
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.95%E -3.27%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 18:24
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.95%E -3.27%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 18:35
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.95%E -3.27%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 18:25
Betway1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.09%E -3.79%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 20:10
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.09%E -1.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.09%E -3.79%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 20:10
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.71%E -2.39%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.09%E -3.79%K -6.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 18:19
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -4.33%E -2.81%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -10.99%E -4.67%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 20:10
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -2.47%E -1.57%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -11.36%E -4.86%K -8.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 20:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-04-12 20:10
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-04-12 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%1.3%2026-04-12 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%1.3%2026-04-12 20:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%1.3%2026-04-12 20:05
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%1.3%2026-04-12 20:10
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%1.5%2026-04-12 20:10
Polymarket1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%2.1%2026-04-12 20:10
BetOpenly1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%2.2%2026-04-12 19:24
Novig1.56I 64.10%NM 62.59%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.41%2.4%2026-04-12 20:10