Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners v Athletics

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 02:11 UTC

Final: Seattle Mariners 6–7 Athletics

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seattle Mariners (Local)

Prediction 66.04%1.51fair odd
EV -0.285%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.558%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.48%66.08%66.04%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.451.5171.43%69.00%68.97%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletics (Visit)

Prediction 33.96%2.94fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +0.630%
Kelly +0.945%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%33.92%33.96%35.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.792.803.0037.74%35.80%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Mariners (Local): 66.04%; Athletics (Visit): 33.96%. For Athletics (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV +1.89%E +0.630%K +0.945%G +0.018%2.3%2026-09-04 13:50
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -0.148%E -0.050%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 13:29
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -5.57%E -3.89%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -0.148%E -0.050%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:40
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -6.89%E -4.89%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -0.487%E -0.166%K -0.252%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%EV -1.51%E -0.519%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-04 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%EV -1.51%E -0.519%K -0.793%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-04 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.55%E -5.39%K -18.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.19%E -0.759%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 10:29
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -2.53%E -0.880%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 13:45
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -2.53%E -0.880%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.53%E -0.880%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 13:45
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.53%E -0.880%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 13:45
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV -2.86%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 13:29
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.51%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.49%EV -2.86%E -1.00%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 14:15
Everygame🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82%EV -2.27%E -1.53%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 06:24
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 12:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 12:40
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 13:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.54%E -1.25%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 14:28
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 65.05%EV -0.285%E -0.189%K -0.558%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.95%EV -4.56%E -1.62%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-04 10:24
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.27%E -1.53%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-04 14:15
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 10:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 10:29
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 12:59
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:00
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 12:05
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:24
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 13:03
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 12:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:04
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:05
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.57%E -3.89%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 14:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.23%E -4.39%K -14.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.90%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 12:49
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.58%E -2.01%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 12:59
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.58%E -2.01%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 12:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 10:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -2.93%E -1.99%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 10:29
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -3.59%E -2.46%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 12:45
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 07:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 12:44
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:29
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:29
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:30
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:29
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:30
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:48
Betclic (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:49
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:48
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.60%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -3.59%E -2.46%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -7.62%E -2.80%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 10:40
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.27%E -1.53%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.30%E -3.07%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.27%E -1.53%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.30%E -3.07%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.30%E -3.07%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 10:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.30%E -3.07%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 10:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.57%E -3.89%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.30%E -3.07%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -3.59%E -2.46%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -10.00%E -3.77%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 07:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.23%E -4.39%K -14.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -10.00%E -3.77%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 12:50
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -6.89%E -4.89%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -10.00%E -3.77%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.48I 67.57%NM 67.54%3.08I 32.47%NM 32.46%0.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-04 14:15
ProphetX1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-04 14:20
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Novig1.48I 67.57%NM 66.89%2.99I 33.44%NM 33.11%1.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Polymarket1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79%2.1%2026-09-04 14:00