Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros

2026-08-12 19:46 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Francisco Giants (Local)

Predicción 43.38%2.31momio equitativo
EV +1.95%
Ventaja +0.828%
Kelly +1.44%
Crecimiento +0.028%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.83%43.36%43.44%45.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.192.202.3547.62%45.69%45.45%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Houston Astros (Visitante)

Predicción 56.62%1.77momio equitativo
EV +0.782%
Ventaja +0.439%
Kelly +1.00%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.94%56.64%56.56%58.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.691.691.7860.98%59.15%59.17%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: San Francisco Giants (Local): 43.38%; Houston Astros (Visitante): 56.62%. Para San Francisco Giants (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.31. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.35, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.95%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%EV +1.95%E +0.828%K +1.44%G +0.028%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%EV -4.31%E -2.55%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-12 07:46
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -0.224%E -0.097%K -0.172%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 08:00
FanDuel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -1.09%E -0.479%K -0.853%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -2.62%E -1.52%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-12 08:00
DraftKings🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 43.25%EV -1.53%E -0.672%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.75%EV -2.05%E -1.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-12 08:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.31%E -2.55%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 07:39
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.31%E -2.55%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 07:39
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.26%E -1.46%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-12 07:59
SportsBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.69%E -1.66%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 07:59
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 08:14
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 06:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 06:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-12 06:05
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 06:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 07:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 08:19
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 08:20
ReBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.55%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 08:15
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.55%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 08:19
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.31%E -2.55%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 07:59
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 07:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 08:14
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 07:54
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 07:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 07:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 07:39
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.58%E -3.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 07:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.58%E -3.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 08:13
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 06:04
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 06:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 06:04
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 06:03
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 06:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 06:04
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 07:40
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 07:38
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 08:14
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -5.86%E -2.70%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV +0.782%E +0.439%K +1.00%G +0.008%2.3%2026-08-12 05:49
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.86%E -2.70%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 06:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -5.86%E -2.70%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 08:15
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.18%E -1.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 07:54
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 08:29
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 08:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.75%E -2.20%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 08:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 08:14
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 08:13
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 08:13
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.45%E -3.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 08:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.01%E -3.62%K -9.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 08:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.01%E -3.62%K -9.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 08:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -7.16%E -3.35%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 07:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -7.16%E -3.35%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -4.88%E -2.90%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 07:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -8.47%E -4.01%K -7.63%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -2.05%E -1.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 05:44
Dabble (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.62%E -1.52%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 07:14
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.14%E -4.36%K -11.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-12 06:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-12 05:59
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-08-12 08:00
ProphetX2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%1.5%2026-08-12 08:10
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%1.8%2026-08-12 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%1.8%2026-08-12 08:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%1.8%2026-08-12 08:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.2%2026-08-12 08:10
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.20%2.8%2026-08-12 08:15
Novig2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%4.2%2026-08-12 08:10
Arbitraje (2 combinaciones) +1.28%Caesars 2.35 (43.1%) / 1xBet 1.78 (56.9%)Ver las 2 combinaciones
San Francisco Giants (Local)Houston Astros (Visitante)Margen
Caesars🎯 2.35 (43.1%)1xBet🎯 1.78 (56.9%)+1.28%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 2.30 (43.6%)1xBet🎯 1.78 (56.4%)+0.343%

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