Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres v Houston Astros

2026-08-08 23:16 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Predicción 53.11%1.88momio equitativo
EV -0.680%
Ventaja -0.364%
Kelly -0.782%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.57%53.02%53.25%53.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.811.801.8757.47%55.29%55.56%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Houston Astros (Visitante)

Predicción 46.89%2.13momio equitativo
EV -1.54%
Ventaja -0.731%
Kelly -1.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.34%46.98%46.75%48.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.932.022.022.1051.81%49.49%49.50%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: San Diego Padres (Local): 53.11%; Houston Astros (Visitante): 46.89%. Para San Diego Padres (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.88. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.87, con un valor esperado de -0.680%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -0.680%E -0.364%K -0.782%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-08 00:00
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -1.74%E -0.942%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -2.00%E -0.959%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-08 01:55
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.74%E -0.942%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 00:30
BetAnything🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.74%E -0.942%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -7.63%E -3.87%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 02:00
Bovada🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -2.27%E -1.24%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -6.69%E -3.36%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:34
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.54%E -0.731%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-07 19:20
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.54%E -0.731%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-07 20:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.00%E -0.959%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-07 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.00%E -0.959%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-07 18:45
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.00%E -0.959%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 01:20
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.00%E -0.959%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 01:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 00:40
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 00:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:40
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:40
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:40
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:40
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 00:40
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.80%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -7.63%E -3.87%K -7.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 00:30
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.34%E -1.83%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 01:50
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.34%E -1.83%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 23:35
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.34%E -1.83%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 00:40
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 19:20
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 19:34
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 19:20
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 23:25
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 19:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 19:20
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 19:20
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 00:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 19:19
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 01:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 19:20
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 23:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -7.63%E -3.87%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 00:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -7.63%E -3.87%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 00:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.93%E -2.75%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.94%E -1.42%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 02:04
DraftKings🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.93%E -2.75%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.35%E -2.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.93%E -2.75%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.29%E -2.62%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 01:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -4.93%E -2.75%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 19:45
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -4.82%E -2.37%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 02:18
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -4.82%E -2.37%K -4.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 02:29
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.99%E -3.39%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 18:45
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.99%E -3.39%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 00:25
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%EV -6.52%E -3.71%K -8.58%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -9.51%E -4.93%K -10.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 00:40
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.05%E -4.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 19:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.72%EV -7.58%E -4.36%K -10.25%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.28%EV -9.04%E -4.66%K -9.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 23:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.72%EV -7.58%E -4.36%K -10.25%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.28%EV -9.04%E -4.66%K -9.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 23:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-07 18:50
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-07 18:55
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72%1.4%2026-08-08 01:15
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%2.7%2026-08-08 01:55
ProphetX1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%2.7%2026-08-08 02:40
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 52.59%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.41%9.3%2026-08-07 21:20