The School of Odds
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San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 01:41 UTC

Final: San Diego Padres 1–3 Arizona Diamondbacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 54.00%1.85fair odd
EV +0.974%
Edge +0.521%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%54.00%54.09%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.761.761.8758.82%56.71%56.82%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 46.00%2.17fair odd
EV -0.633%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.546%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.74%46.00%45.91%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.082.1651.28%48.15%47.96%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.974%E +0.521%K +1.12%G +0.011%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -10.29%E -5.28%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 01:34
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -1.19%E -0.648%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -2.93%E -1.39%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-10 00:55
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.19%E -0.648%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 16:45
Dabble (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.73%E -0.948%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:35
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -2.81%E -1.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -1.09%E -0.509%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 00:34
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -2.81%E -1.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -4.77%E -2.31%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 01:40
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.81%E -1.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 01:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.81%E -1.56%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 00:34
BetUS1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -3.35%E -1.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -0.633%E -0.293%K -0.546%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-10 01:40
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.35%E -1.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -1.09%E -0.509%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-10 01:24
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.35%E -1.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -1.09%E -0.509%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-10 01:24
BetAnything1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -3.35%E -1.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -1.55%E -0.726%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-10 01:10
FanDuel1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.35%E -1.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -4.31%E -2.07%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 00:34
Bovada1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -3.35%E -1.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -5.23%E -2.54%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-10 01:35
MyBookie.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.89%E -2.18%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -3.85%E -1.84%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-10 01:23
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -3.89%E -2.18%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -6.15%E -3.02%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 16:39
Svenska Spel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.73%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.27%EV -1.55%E -0.726%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-09 23:04
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 16:39
ReBet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 19:44
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 00:15
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 01:10
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 23:24
SportsBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -5.23%E -2.54%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 00:34
PlayUp1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 15:00
Neds1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 01:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.43%E -2.50%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 01:04
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.31%E -2.07%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 00:15
DraftKings1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.31%E -2.07%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 01:19
Coolbet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.31%E -2.07%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 00:34
NordicBet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.77%E -2.31%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 01:39
Betsson1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.77%E -2.31%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 01:39
GTbets1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.77%E -2.31%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 01:40
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 18:30
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 01:40
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -4.97%E -2.82%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 01:40
Unibet (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.47%E -1.17%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 23:04
Unibet (NL)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.47%E -1.17%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 23:04
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 01:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 01:04
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 01:40
Unibet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 01:30
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:40
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:40
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:40
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 00:34
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 01:40
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.51%E -3.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.99%E -4.00%K -7.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 01:29
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
Virgin Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
Unibet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:05
BetRivers1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:05
TABtouch1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:05
Bally Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 23:04
Betway1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.05%E -3.47%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 01:39
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.59%E -3.81%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 15:04
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.59%E -3.81%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.69%E -2.78%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 14:59
LeoVegas1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -7.13%E -4.14%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -7.07%E -3.50%K -6.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 01:40
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -7.67%E -4.48%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -5.23%E -2.54%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 23:04
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.21%E -4.83%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.39%E -1.62%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-10 01:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-10 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-10 01:35
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-10 01:40
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-10 01:35
ProphetX1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-10 01:40
Novig1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.98%1.2%2026-07-10 01:40
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-07-10 01:40
BetOpenly1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.5%2026-07-10 01:24
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%1.8%2026-07-09 22:20