The School of Odds

San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks

2026-07-10 01:41 — MLB

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 53.32%1.88fair odd
EV -0.833%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.968%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.29%53.30%53.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.791.86MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
52.22%1.915Min
53.95%1.854Max
53.29%1.877Mean
53.30%1.876Median
53.32%1.876IQM
53.26%1.878Margin-weighted

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 46.68%2.14fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.935%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.05%46.71%46.70%47.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.942.042.052.10MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
46.05%2.171Min
47.78%2.093Max
46.71%2.141Mean
46.70%2.141Median
46.68%2.142IQM
46.74%2.140Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

BookmakerSan Diego Padres (Local) ▼Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)MarginUpdated
GTbets1.86I 53.76% NM 52.55%EV -0.833% E -0.448% K -0.968% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 47.45%EV -3.83% E -1.86% K -3.61% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 18:55
BetOnline.ag1.86I 53.76% NM 52.43%EV -0.833% E -0.448% K -0.968% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 47.57%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 18:25
LowVig.ag1.86I 53.76% NM 52.43%EV -0.833% E -0.448% K -0.968% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 47.57%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 18:25
1xBet1.83I 54.64% NM 53.44%EV -2.43% E -1.33% K -2.93% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 46.56%EV -1.96% E -0.935% K -1.78% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 00:40
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -2.43% E -1.33% K -2.93% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 18:25
BetAnything1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -2.43% E -1.33% K -2.93% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:34
Pinnacle1.82I 54.95% NM 53.57%EV -2.97% E -1.63% K -3.62% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 46.43%EV -1.96% E -0.935% K -1.78% G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-08 21:30
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56% NM 53.49%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.51%EV -3.36% E -1.62% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 01:29
Unibet (NL)1.80I 55.56% NM 53.49%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.51%EV -3.36% E -1.62% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 01:30
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56% NM 53.49%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.51%EV -3.36% E -1.62% K -3.14% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 01:29
MyBookie.ag1.80I 55.56% NM 53.37%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.63%EV -3.83% E -1.86% K -3.61% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 01:49
Caesars1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 00:24
Fanatics1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 21:19
Coral1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 00:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 00:25
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 23:40
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:00
Betway1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:19
Bet Right1.80I 55.56% NM 53.13%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.87%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:04
Neds1.80I 55.56% NM 52.88%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 47.12%EV -5.70% E -2.82% K -5.59% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 01:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.88%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 47.12%EV -5.70% E -2.82% K -5.59% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 01:30
Fliff1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 18:25
William Hill1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -4.03% E -2.24% K -5.04% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 01:55
FanDuel1.79I 55.87% NM 53.75%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 46.25%EV -2.90% E -1.39% K -2.68% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 18:40
Bovada1.79I 55.87% NM 53.51%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.49%EV -3.83% E -1.86% K -3.61% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 02:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.79I 55.87% NM 53.39%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.61%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:30
Unibet1.79I 55.87% NM 53.39%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.61%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:30
Casumo1.79I 55.87% NM 53.39%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.61%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:35
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87% NM 53.39%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.61%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:30
Bally Bet1.79I 55.87% NM 53.39%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.61%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:30
betPARX1.79I 55.87% NM 53.39%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.61%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:34
DraftKings1.79I 55.87% NM 53.26%EV -4.56% E -2.55% K -5.78% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.74%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 19:35
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 19:35
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 01:30
LiveScore Bet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 01:30
BetRivers1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 01:30
TABtouch1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 01:30
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -4.76% E -2.34% K -4.58% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 00:29
NordicBet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.28%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.03I 49.26% NM 46.72%EV -5.23% E -2.58% K -5.08% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:35
Betsson1.78I 56.18% NM 53.28%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.03I 49.26% NM 46.72%EV -5.23% E -2.58% K -5.08% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:34
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18% NM 52.91%EV -5.10% E -2.86% K -6.54% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.09%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 19:35
PlayUp1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -5.63% E -3.18% K -7.31% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 00:24
BetMGM1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -5.63% E -3.18% K -7.31% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 00:25
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50% NM 53.30%EV -5.63% E -3.18% K -7.31% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 46.70%EV -5.70% E -2.82% K -5.59% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 19:34
ReBet1.77I 56.50% NM 53.05%EV -5.63% E -3.18% K -7.31% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.95%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 01:44
SportsBet1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -6.16% E -3.50% K -8.11% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 18:40
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -6.16% E -3.50% K -8.11% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 18:30
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -6.70% E -3.83% K -8.93% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 18:24
888sport1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -6.70% E -3.83% K -8.93% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:40
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -6.70% E -3.83% K -8.93% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:40
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -6.70% E -3.83% K -8.93% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -4.30% E -2.10% K -4.09% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 19:40
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14% NM 53.33%EV -6.70% E -3.83% K -8.93% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.67%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 19:34
Grosvenor1.75I 57.14% NM 53.33%EV -6.70% E -3.83% K -8.93% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.67%EV -6.63% E -3.32% K -6.63% G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 01:30
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14% NM 53.26%EV -8.30% E -4.82% K -11.52% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 46.74%EV -8.50% E -4.34% K -8.85% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-09 01:44
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82% NM 53.30%EV -9.36% E -5.51% K -13.38% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 46.70%EV -9.43% E -4.86% K -10.03% G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-08 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerSan Diego Padres (Local)Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.82I 54.95% NM 54.50%2.18I 45.87% NM 45.50%0.8%2026-07-09 01:05
Kalshi1.85I 54.05% NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95% NM 46.48%1.0%2026-07-09 02:30
Polymarket1.82I 54.95% NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08% NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-08 21:00
Novig1.82I 54.95% NM 54.16%2.15I 46.51% NM 45.84%1.5%2026-07-09 02:35
Matchbook1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%5.2%2026-07-09 01:50
Smarkets1.73I 57.80% NM 52.99%1.95I 51.28% NM 47.01%9.1%2026-07-09 02:30