The School of Odds

San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 02:11 UTC

Final: San Diego Padres 10–4 Arizona Diamondbacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 56.76%1.76fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.17%56.79%56.78%57.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.681.7460.98%59.34%59.52%57.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 43.24%2.31fair odd
EV +0.744%
Edge +0.319%
Kelly +0.559%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.04%43.21%43.22%43.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.132.212.202.3346.95%45.28%45.45%42.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Everygame1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV +0.744%E +0.319%K +0.559%G +0.004%2.1%2026-07-09 02:04
GTbets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -0.121%E -0.052%K -0.092%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 02:09
LowVig.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -0.553%E -0.241%K -0.426%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 02:09
BetOnline.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -0.553%E -0.241%K -0.426%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 02:09
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -2.37%E -1.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -1.42%E -0.622%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-09 01:45
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 56.53%EV -1.80%E -1.04%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.47%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-08 23:14
BetAnything1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -2.37%E -1.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-09 02:05
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-08 00:30
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-09 02:00
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 02:05
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 02:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 02:00
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 02:00
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -1.23%E -0.709%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%EV -3.15%E -1.41%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-08 06:45
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -1.23%E -0.709%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 14:15
Svenska Spel1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.37%E -1.38%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-09 00:55
MyBookie.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 02:00
DraftKings1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.58%E -1.61%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 02:00
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.01%E -1.81%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 00:15
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.01%E -1.81%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 01:54
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -4.44%E -2.01%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 02:09
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.94%E -1.72%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 08:20
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.94%E -1.72%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 00:55
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.94%E -1.72%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 00:55
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 04:35
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 04:45
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 02:00
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 04:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 02:00
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 02:00
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 03:24
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:05
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 03:25
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 00:30
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 03:25
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 03:25
Marathon Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:05
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 02:40
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:00
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:10
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:00
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.77%E -3.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 02:00
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.77%E -3.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 02:00
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.34%E -3.84%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:55
Unibet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:55
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:55
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:54
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:55
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.50%E -2.06%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 00:55
SportsBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.07%E -2.41%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 14:14
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:25
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:24
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 02:10
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.17%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 00:55
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.17%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 00:55
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.17%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 00:55
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -4.64%E -2.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -6.17%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 00:55
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.21%E -3.12%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 23:45
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.34%E -3.84%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 02:10
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.91%E -4.21%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-09 02:09
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -5.77%E -3.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -7.47%E -3.49%K -6.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 00:55
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -6.91%E -4.21%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.90%E -3.71%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-09 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-07-09 02:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-07-09 02:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-07-09 02:10
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-09 01:55
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-09 02:00
ProphetX1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-07-09 02:10
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-07-09 02:10
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.67%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.33%1.4%2026-07-09 02:10
BetOpenly1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-07-09 02:09
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-07-09 02:05