The School of Odds

San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 01:41 UTC

Final: San Diego Padres 4–1 Arizona Diamondbacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

San Diego Padres (Local)

Prediction 52.21%1.92fair odd
EV -0.285%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.313%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.65%52.15%52.22%53.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.831.831.9156.82%54.60%54.64%52.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arizona Diamondbacks (Visit)

Prediction 47.79%2.09fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.751%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.61%47.85%47.78%49.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.902.002.002.0652.63%50.13%50.00%48.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -0.285%E -0.149%K -0.313%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 01:39
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -0.807%E -0.425%K -0.897%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -6.80%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 01:40
BetUS1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%EV -1.85%E -0.985%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%EV -2.50%E -1.23%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-08 01:35
BetAnything1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.85%E -0.985%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -2.98%E -1.47%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 01:39
1xBet1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.55%E -0.751%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-08 00:55
Pinnacle1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.55%E -0.751%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-08 01:35
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -2.50%E -1.23%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 01:40
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -2.50%E -1.23%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-08 01:40
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.37%E -1.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.80%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 01:40
Winamax (DE)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -2.90%E -1.56%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -8.24%E -4.29%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 01:40
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.50%E -1.23%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-08 01:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 01:40
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 01:40
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 15:15
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:40
BetMGM1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:39
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -3.94%E -2.14%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -9.19%E -4.84%K -10.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 01:40
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.46%E -1.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 18:00
MyBookie.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.46%E -1.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 23:20
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.46%E -1.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 01:10
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.46%E -1.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 01:10
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -3.94%E -1.96%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 01:25
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 13:49
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 12:09
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 17:44
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 14:33
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:10
Unibet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:10
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:09
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:10
Bally Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:10
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 01:10
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 17:09
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 18:05
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 17:09
NordicBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 15:14
Betsson1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 15:14
PlayUp1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-07 17:45
GTbets1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.46%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 01:40
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 17:45
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.89%E -2.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 17:25
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.89%E -2.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 01:30
LiveScore Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-08 01:09
Virgin Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-08 01:10
Dabble (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.37%E -2.71%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-08 00:54
BetRivers1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -5.85%E -2.97%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 01:10
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.98%E -2.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -5.85%E -2.97%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 01:10
SportsBet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.51%E -3.04%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 18:00
Unibet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.51%E -3.04%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.85%E -2.97%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 01:39
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.03%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 14:34
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.03%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 14:34
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.03%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 14:35
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.03%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 12:35
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.03%E -3.35%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.80%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 23:15
Bet Right1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -6.55%E -3.66%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -2.02%E -0.987%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 00:30
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -6.55%E -3.66%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -6.80%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 01:10
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.07%E -3.97%K -9.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -7.76%E -4.02%K -8.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-08 01:38
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.59%E -4.29%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.41%E -2.21%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-07 17:59
DraftKings1.76I 56.82%NM 53.32%EV -8.12%E -4.61%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.68%EV -3.94%E -1.96%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-08 01:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.92I 52.08%NM 52.12%2.09I 47.85%NM 47.88%-0.1%2026-07-08 01:40
BetOpenly1.91I 52.36%NM 52.25%2.09I 47.85%NM 47.75%0.2%2026-07-08 01:39
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25%0.6%2026-07-08 01:39
ProphetX1.91I 52.36%NM 52.01%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.99%0.7%2026-07-08 01:40
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-07 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-07-08 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-07-08 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.85%1.5%2026-07-08 01:40
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%3.0%2026-07-08 01:40
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%4.3%2026-07-08 01:40