The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 22:41 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 9–0 New York Mets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 52.25%1.91fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.942%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.33%52.28%52.22%53.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.831.831.8857.47%54.77%54.64%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 47.75%2.09fair odd
EV -0.679%
Edge -0.327%
Kelly -0.629%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.94%47.72%47.78%48.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.002.002.0851.81%49.89%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 52.25%; New York Mets (Visit): 47.75%. For New York Mets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.08, with an expected value of -0.679%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%EV -1.63%E -0.793%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-08 21:35
DraftKings🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%EV -1.63%E -0.793%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-08 22:39
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%EV -2.11%E -1.03%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-08 22:20
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%EV -2.59%E -1.27%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-08 22:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -3.07%E -1.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 22:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -3.07%E -1.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 22:19
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -3.07%E -1.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 22:20
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -1.77%E -0.942%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -3.07%E -1.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 22:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.29%E -1.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.11%E -1.03%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-08 21:35
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -2.29%E -1.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-08 22:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.34%E -1.80%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 22:20
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.34%E -1.80%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 22:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.34%E -1.80%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 21:34
Caesars🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV -3.86%E -2.10%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -0.679%E -0.327%K -0.629%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-08 22:18
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%EV -2.11%E -1.03%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 20:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%EV -2.11%E -1.03%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -2.59%E -1.27%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 22:40
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 21:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 21:34
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 22:39
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 21:39
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 22:39
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 22:19
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 22:20
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 22:39
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:30
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:29
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:30
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:24
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.89%E -3.53%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 21:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -4.38%E -2.40%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -7.84%E -4.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 22:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -4.91%E -2.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -2.59%E -1.27%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 21:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -4.91%E -2.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -2.59%E -1.27%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 21:39
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%EV -4.91%E -2.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%EV -4.02%E -2.00%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 22:29
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.91%E -2.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 22:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.91%E -2.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.98%E -2.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 22:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.91%E -2.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 22:39
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 21:40
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 21:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 21:40
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 21:39
Bally Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 21:38
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 21:40
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 21:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.43%E -3.00%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.93%E -3.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 22:39
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 21:39
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.54%E -1.75%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:30
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 21:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 21:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 21:34
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 16:14
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 22:40
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.89%E -3.53%K -7.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 21:34
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.89%E -3.53%K -7.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 22:40
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.95%E -3.31%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.89%E -3.53%K -7.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 22:38
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -7.00%E -3.93%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 21:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -7.00%E -3.93%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -4.50%E -2.25%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 21:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -7.00%E -3.93%K -8.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -5.45%E -2.75%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 22:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.00%E -3.93%K -8.97%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -7.84%E -4.06%K -8.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 22:18
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.72%EV -9.09%E -5.22%K -12.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.28%EV -7.36%E -3.80%K -7.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75%2.11I 47.39%NM 47.25%0.3%2026-08-08 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-08 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-08 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-08 22:20
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-08-08 21:55
Polymarket◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-08-08 21:05
Novig◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-08-08 22:40
Matchbook◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.7%2026-08-08 22:40
BetOpenly◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%2.3%2026-08-08 22:40
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.1%2026-08-08 22:25