The School of Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers

2026-07-12 16:16 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 46.20%2.16fair odd
EV -0.204%
Edge -0.094%
Kelly -0.176%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.62%46.10%46.19%46.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.082.092.1651%48%48%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 53.80%1.86fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%53.90%53.81%55.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.771.8358%57%57%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -0.204%E -0.094%K -0.176%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -6.39%E -3.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-11 18:04
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.666%E -0.310%K -0.579%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.16%E -1.76%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 18:19
GTbets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.55%E -0.847%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-11 18:09
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.16%E -1.76%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-11 19:30
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.78%E -2.70%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 18:09
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.78%E -2.70%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 19:29
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.85%E -3.34%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 19:29
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.93%E -4.01%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 18:04
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.93%E -4.01%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 19:29
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.93%E -4.01%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 18:09
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.93%E -4.01%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 19:29
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.93%E -4.01%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 19:29
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.93%E -4.01%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 18:29
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.98%E -1.42%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.47%E -4.34%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 18:05
LowVig.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -3.44%E -1.64%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -1.55%E -0.847%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-11 18:04
BetOnline.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -3.44%E -1.64%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -1.55%E -0.847%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-11 18:05
MyBookie.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.90%E -1.87%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.70%E -2.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 19:30
Unibet (UK)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -4.36%E -2.11%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -4.24%E -2.38%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 19:29
Betsson2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.36%E -2.11%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.32%E -3.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 19:29
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.29%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.16%E -1.76%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 19:29
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.29%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.16%E -1.76%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 19:28
ReBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.29%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.78%E -2.70%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:29
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.29%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.78%E -2.70%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:29
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.29%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.32%E -3.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 19:30
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.29%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.85%E -3.34%K -7.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 19:28
DraftKings2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.75%E -2.82%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -3.70%E -2.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 19:29
NordicBet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -5.75%E -2.82%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -4.78%E -2.70%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-11 19:29
Betclic (FR)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -5.75%E -2.82%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.32%E -3.02%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 19:28
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.49%EV -8.52%E -4.30%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -7.47%E -4.34%K -10.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-11 19:29
Unibet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.34%EV -8.52%E -4.30%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.66%EV -8.01%E -4.68%K -11.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 19:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-07-11 18:05
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-11 18:09
Novig2.06I 48.54%NM 44.47%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%9.1%2026-07-11 18:07
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 46.45%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.55%9.8%2026-07-11 19:30
Matchbook1.82I 54.95%NM 45.51%1.52I 65.79%NM 54.49%20.7%2026-07-11 19:19