The School of Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers

2026-07-11 20:06 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Prediction 45.70%2.19fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.816%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.52%45.71%46.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.082.102.1551%48%48%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Milwaukee Brewers (Visit)

Prediction 54.30%1.84fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%54.48%54.29%55.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.741.741.8060%57%57%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -1.75%E -0.816%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -2.25%E -1.25%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-10 17:58
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -1.75%E -0.816%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -7.14%E -4.18%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-10 18:49
LowVig.ag2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -2.67%E -1.25%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -2.25%E -1.25%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-10 19:10
BetOnline.ag2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -2.67%E -1.25%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -2.25%E -1.25%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-10 19:10
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.88%E -2.19%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 17:40
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.88%E -2.19%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 19:05
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.88%E -2.19%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-10 18:15
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.97%E -2.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:54
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:40
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:55
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:54
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:54
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:54
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.04%E -1.92%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 18:19
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.95%E -2.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.97%E -2.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:40
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.95%E -2.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.97%E -2.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 17:44
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.95%E -2.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.97%E -2.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-10 18:00
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -5.41%E -2.61%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -5.51%E -3.17%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 17:47
Fliff2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.88%E -2.19%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 19:09
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.51%E -3.17%K -7.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 17:54
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.05%E -3.50%K -8.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 17:47
ReBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.61%E -4.30%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.14%E -4.18%K -10.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-10 17:44
Unibet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -9.52%E -4.81%K -9.72%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -8.77%E -5.22%K -12.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 17:45
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -9.52%E -4.81%K -9.72%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.86%E -5.94%K -14.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-10 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 47.01%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.99%-0.1%2026-07-10 19:10
Polymarket2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-07-10 19:10
Smarkets1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%10.0%2026-07-10 17:44