L’École des cotes

Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-16 22:41 UTC

Score final : Philadelphia Phillies 8–2 Miami Marlins

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prévision 61.78%1.62cote équitable
EV -0.527%
Avantage -0.327%
Kelly -0.864%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.87%61.92%61.69%63.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.451.531.541.6168.97%65.23%64.94%62.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Miami Marlins (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.22%2.62cote équitable
EV +0.507%
Avantage +0.193%
Kelly +0.311%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 2.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.59%38.08%38.31%39.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.382.522.502.6342.02%39.74%40.00%38.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%EV -3.62%E -2.32%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%EV +0.507%E +0.193%K +0.311%G +0.002%2.1%2026-06-16 22:30
GTbets1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65%EV -0.639%E -0.246%K -0.400%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-16 22:30
Unibet (NL)1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -6.71%E -4.44%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.639%E -0.246%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-16 22:20
Unibet (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -6.71%E -4.44%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -0.639%E -0.246%K -0.400%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-16 22:20
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.639%E -0.246%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 21:40
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.639%E -0.246%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 21:40
betPARX1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.639%E -0.246%K -0.400%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 21:40
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%EV -1.40%E -0.544%K -0.888%G +0.000%2.5%2026-06-16 22:30
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%EV -1.40%E -0.544%K -0.888%G +0.000%2.5%2026-06-16 22:30
Caesars1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -1.40%E -0.544%K -0.888%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-16 22:39
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -6.09%E -4.01%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -1.40%E -0.544%K -0.888%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 22:39
BetAnything1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -1.79%E -0.695%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.6%2026-06-16 22:40
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -1.79%E -0.695%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.6%2026-06-16 22:10
ReBet1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.62%E -2.32%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-16 22:10
Hard Rock Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-16 22:00
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.71%E -4.44%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 22:40
Svenska Spel1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.71%E -4.44%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 22:40
ATG (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.71%E -4.44%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 22:40
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-16 14:00
LiveScore Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.94%E -5.33%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 22:40
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.94%E -5.33%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 22:40
TABtouch1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.94%E -5.33%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 22:40
Virgin Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.94%E -5.33%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 22:40
Bally Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -7.94%E -5.33%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -2.55%E -1.00%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 22:40
BetUS1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-16 22:20
MyBookie.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -3.31%E -1.31%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-16 22:19
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 62.16%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.84%EV -3.31%E -1.31%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 20:09
1xBet1.61I 62.11%NM 60.92%EV -0.527%E -0.327%K -0.864%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.08%EV -4.08%E -1.62%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.0%2026-06-16 16:30
theScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-16 19:10
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.62%E -2.32%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-16 19:10
Unibet (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.62%E -2.32%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-16 22:40
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.62%E -2.32%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-16 22:09
PointsBet (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.62%E -2.32%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-16 04:00
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 22:10
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 22:10
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 22:20
Fliff1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 22:40
Coolbet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 22:20
Bet Right1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 20:10
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-16 22:10
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 20:10
Betr (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 22:20
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 20:10
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 20:10
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 22:40
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-16 20:20
LeoVegas1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -9.18%E -6.24%K -19.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-16 22:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -10.41%E -7.18%K -23.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -4.46%E -1.78%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-16 22:40
SportsBet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.23%E -2.11%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 19:10
NordicBet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.23%E -2.11%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 22:20
Betsson1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.23%E -2.11%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.00%E -1.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-16 06:20
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 20:10
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.23%E -2.73%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 22:39
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 22:40
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-16 22:30
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-16 22:39
Dabble (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.37%E -2.60%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-16 20:10
Betclic (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV -7.90%E -3.28%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-16 22:19
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.85%E -3.15%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.28%E -3.45%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-16 22:40
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.32%E -4.88%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.28%E -3.45%K -5.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-16 22:30
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.47%E -3.58%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.05%E -3.80%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-16 20:18
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.59I 62.89%NM 62.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 37.06%-0.1%2026-06-16 22:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-06-16 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-06-16 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-06-16 22:40
Polymarket1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-06-16 22:10
Novig1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-06-16 22:40
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-06-16 22:30
ProphetX1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-06-16 22:40
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-06-16 22:40
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 61.99%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.01%2.8%2026-06-16 22:40