Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies v Athletics

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:41 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 9–1 Athletics

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 64.59%1.55fair odd
EV -0.539%
Edge -0.350%
Kelly -0.997%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.56%64.38%64.58%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.481.5471.43%67.34%67.57%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletics (Visit)

Prediction 35.41%2.82fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +0.571%
Kelly +0.877%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%35.62%35.42%38.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.682.652.8740.82%37.29%37.74%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 64.59%; Athletics (Visit): 35.41%. For Athletics (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.98%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 34.02%EV +1.64%E +0.571%K +0.877%G +0.014%2.4%2026-05-05 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%EV +1.29%E +0.450%K +0.691%G +0.009%2.5%2026-05-05 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%EV +1.29%E +0.450%K +0.691%G +0.009%2.5%2026-05-05 21:55
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72%EV -0.131%E -0.046%K -0.072%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-05 22:20
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.58%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42%EV -0.131%E -0.046%K -0.072%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-05 22:35
Everygame🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.77%E -2.53%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-05 22:30
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-05 22:25
ReBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-05 22:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 22:35
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 22:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 22:39
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.58%E -6.84%K -23.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-05 22:24
MyBookie.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -1.55%E -0.557%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-05 22:38
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.57%EV -5.71%E -3.91%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.43%EV -1.55%E -0.557%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-05 22:39
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -1.55%E -0.557%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-05 22:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-05 20:24
Fanatics🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-05 22:10
Fliff🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 22:30
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 21:55
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.08%EV -1.18%E -0.774%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.92%EV -3.32%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-05 20:29
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -3.67%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-05 22:30
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-05 20:45
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 22:30
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 22:39
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 22:34
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.18%E -0.774%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-05 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-05 20:35
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-05 20:30
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-05 20:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 20:29
888sport🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 20:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-05 20:34
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-05 20:30
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 20:45
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 11:45
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 20:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 20:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 20:45
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 20:44
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.46%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.54%EV -8.98%E -3.50%K -5.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -0.539%E -0.350%K -0.997%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -9.69%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-05 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -11.46%E -4.59%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 22:40
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -1.18%E -0.774%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.23%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-05 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -13.23%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-05 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%0.0%2026-05-05 22:35
ProphetX1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-05-05 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-05-05 22:40
Novig1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-05-05 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-05-05 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-05-05 22:30
Polymarket1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-05-05 21:30
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-05-05 22:00
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%0.9%2026-05-05 22:40
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%2.5%2026-05-05 22:40