Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Athletics

Inicio: 2026-05-05 22:41 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 9–1 Athletics

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

65%

35%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 64.59%1.55momio equitativo

EV -0.539%

Ventaja -0.350%

Kelly -0.997%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

61.56%64.38%64.58%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.401.491.481.5471.43%67.34%67.57%64.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletics (Visitante)

Predicción 35.41%2.82momio equitativo

EV +1.64%

Ventaja +0.571%

Kelly +0.877%

Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

33.33%35.62%35.42%38.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.452.682.652.8740.82%37.29%37.74%34.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 64.59%; Athletics (Visitante): 35.41%. Para Athletics (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.82. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.87, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.64%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
GTbets🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.98%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 34.02%EV +1.64%E +0.571%K +0.877%G +0.014%	2.4%	2026-05-05 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%EV +1.29%E +0.450%K +0.691%G +0.009%	2.5%	2026-05-05 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%EV +1.29%E +0.450%K +0.691%G +0.009%	2.5%	2026-05-05 21:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72%EV -0.131%E -0.046%K -0.072%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-05-05 22:20
BetUS🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.58%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42%EV -0.131%E -0.046%K -0.072%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-05-05 22:35
Everygame🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.77%E -2.53%K -7.69%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-05-05 22:30
FanDuel🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-05 22:25
ReBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-05 22:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 22:35
Caesars🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-05 22:40
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.29%E -5.84%K -19.74%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-05 22:39
Paddy Power🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.58%E -6.84%K -23.95%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -0.839%E -0.300%K -0.466%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-05 22:24
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -1.55%E -0.557%K -0.869%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-05 22:38
Bovada🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.57%EV -5.71%E -3.91%K -12.40%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.43%EV -1.55%E -0.557%K -0.869%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-05 22:39
SportsBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -1.55%E -0.557%K -0.869%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-05 22:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-05 20:24
Fanatics🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-05 22:10
Fliff🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.35%E -4.38%K -14.11%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-05 22:30
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.90%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.61%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 21:55
1xBet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.08%EV -1.18%E -0.774%K -2.23%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 35.92%EV -3.32%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-05-05 20:29
Bet Right🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -3.67%E -1.35%K -2.13%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-05 22:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
TAB🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-05 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 22:30
Coolbet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.00%E -4.86%K -15.90%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-05 22:39
NordicBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-05 22:34
Betsson🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-05 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.18%E -0.774%K -2.23%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-05-05 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-05 20:35
BetMGM🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-05 20:30
Neds🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-05 20:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-05 20:29
888sport🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 20:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.06%E -3.44%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-05 20:34
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-05 20:30
LeoVegas🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
Grosvenor🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
Unibet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
Casumo🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
betPARX🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
ATG (SE)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
Bally Bet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.48%E -1.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-05 20:45
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 11:45
BetRivers🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 20:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 20:45
Virgin Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 20:45
TABtouch🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.12%E -2.08%K -6.24%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-05 20:44
DraftKings🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.46%EV -4.41%E -2.98%K -9.20%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 36.54%EV -8.98%E -3.50%K -5.72%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-05 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -0.539%E -0.350%K -0.997%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -9.69%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-05 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -11.46%E -4.59%K -7.64%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 22:40
Betway🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -1.18%E -0.774%K -2.23%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.23%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-05 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.52%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -13.23%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-05 22:40

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
BetOpenly◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22%	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%	0.0%	2026-05-05 22:35
ProphetX◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%	2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%	0.5%	2026-05-05 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%	2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%	0.5%	2026-05-05 22:40
Novig◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%	2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%	0.7%	2026-05-05 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%	2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%	0.7%	2026-05-05 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%	2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%	0.7%	2026-05-05 22:30
Polymarket◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	0.8%	2026-05-05 21:30
Kalshi◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	0.8%	2026-05-05 22:00
Matchbook◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%	0.9%	2026-05-05 22:40
Smarkets◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%	2.5%	2026-05-05 22:40