Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets v Houston Astros

2026-08-30 19:11 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

New York Mets (Local)

Predicción 52.62%1.90momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.569%
Kelly -1.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.57%52.66%52.63%53.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.821.821.8856.82%54.99%54.95%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Houston Astros (Visitante)

Predicción 47.38%2.11momio equitativo
EV -0.506%
Ventaja -0.241%
Kelly -0.460%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.56%47.34%47.37%48.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.002.002.1052.36%49.96%50.00%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: New York Mets (Local): 52.62%; Houston Astros (Visitante): 47.38%. Para Houston Astros (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.11. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.10, con un valor esperado de -0.506%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%EV -1.07%E -0.569%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%EV -2.88%E -1.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-29 22:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -1.60%E -0.854%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.88%E -1.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-29 20:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 01:30
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 01:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 01:30
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 22:55
BetAnything🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -2.65%E -1.43%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 02:10
GTbets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.18%EV -3.18%E -1.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.82%EV -0.980%E -0.469%K -0.899%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-30 00:15
BetUS🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.18%EV -3.18%E -1.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.82%EV -0.980%E -0.469%K -0.899%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-30 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV -3.18%E -1.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -1.45%E -0.699%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-30 00:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%EV -3.18%E -1.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%EV -1.45%E -0.699%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-30 00:15
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -0.506%E -0.241%K -0.460%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-30 01:09
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 18:50
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -4.77%E -2.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 19:25
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 19:24
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.19%E -3.13%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 01:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:30
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:30
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:30
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:30
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.67%E -3.38%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:30
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -3.70%E -2.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -7.14%E -3.64%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 01:30
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.23%E -2.32%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 19:25
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.23%E -2.32%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 01:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.23%E -2.32%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -5.72%E -2.87%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 22:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.23%E -2.32%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -7.61%E -3.90%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 01:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.23%E -2.32%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -7.61%E -3.90%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 01:30
DraftKings🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -4.75%E -2.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 01:10
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.88%E -1.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 01:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.88%E -1.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.88%E -1.40%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 19:05
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 19:25
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:50
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 19:25
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 20:00
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 01:15
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.24%E -2.62%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 01:55
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.61%E -3.90%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:24
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.61%E -3.90%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:23
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.81%E -3.24%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.72%E -2.87%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 19:24
Dabble (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.33%E -3.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 01:19
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.76%EV -6.33%E -3.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%EV -9.51%E -4.98%K -10.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 01:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -7.39%E -4.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -7.61%E -3.90%K -8.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 01:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -7.39%E -4.20%K -9.72%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -8.09%E -4.17%K -8.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 20:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-30 00:40
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72%1.4%2026-08-30 02:00
ProphetX1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72%1.4%2026-08-30 02:00
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-08-30 01:15
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 52.47%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%10.2%2026-08-29 19:25