The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

New York Mets v Boston Red Sox

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 20:11 UTC

Final: New York Mets 0–4 Boston Red Sox

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 56.43%1.77fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%56.33%56.43%57.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.691.7561.73%59.14%59.17%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 43.57%2.30fair odd
EV +0.648%
Edge +0.280%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.39%43.67%43.57%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3148.78%45.56%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Mets (Local): 56.43%; Boston Red Sox (Visit): 43.57%. For Boston Red Sox (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.31, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.648%.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV +0.648%E +0.280%K +0.494%G +0.003%2.1%2026-07-11 16:54
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%EV -2.38%E -1.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%EV -1.53%E -0.677%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 19:40
Everygame1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -1.81%E -1.04%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.97%E -0.874%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-11 18:49
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -3.51%E -2.05%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -1.97%E -0.874%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-11 20:09
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.63%E -2.74%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.97%E -0.874%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-11 18:44
BetUS1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -2.38%E -1.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -2.40%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 19:29
BetAnything1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -2.38%E -1.37%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -2.40%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 18:50
FanDuel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.40%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 18:44
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -6.89%E -4.18%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -2.40%E -1.07%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 16:49
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -1.25%E -0.713%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV -2.84%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-11 18:49
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.84%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-11 20:09
Unibet (NL)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.84%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-11 20:09
Bally Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.84%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-11 20:10
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.84%E -1.27%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-11 20:10
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.27%E -1.47%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 18:44
SportsBet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.27%E -1.47%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 18:45
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -1.25%E -0.713%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -3.71%E -1.68%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 18:49
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -1.25%E -0.713%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -3.71%E -1.68%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-11 18:50
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -4.63%E -2.74%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -3.71%E -1.68%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-11 20:09
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.51%E -2.05%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 18:44
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.51%E -2.05%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 19:29
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 18:49
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 18:44
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 18:44
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.63%E -2.74%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-11 19:40
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.63%E -2.74%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-11 18:54
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 19:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 19:19
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 19:19
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 19:19
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 19:19
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 19:59
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:04
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:04
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:04
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:04
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:29
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:19
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:19
Virgin Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:19
LiveScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:19
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:29
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.58%E -5.30%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.15%E -1.88%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 18:45
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.51%E -2.05%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -4.58%E -2.09%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 18:53
DraftKings1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -4.63%E -2.74%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -4.58%E -2.09%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 18:43
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.63%E -2.74%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.02%E -2.30%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 18:44
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.02%E -2.30%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 18:54
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.20%E -3.09%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.02%E -2.30%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 18:55
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.02%E -2.30%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 19:35
Grosvenor1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -6.89%E -4.18%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -5.89%E -2.73%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 19:19
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.81%E -1.04%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-11 18:43
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.94%E -1.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.94%E -1.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 18:44
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.51%E -2.05%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 20:09
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 18:59
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 19:55
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 18:54
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.76%E -3.45%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 18:44
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.33%E -3.81%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.32%E -2.94%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 18:44
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -7.46%E -4.55%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -7.63%E -3.60%K -6.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 19:44
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.94%E -1.71%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.50%E -4.05%K -7.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 20:09
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.51%E -2.05%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.50%E -4.05%K -7.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 20:09
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.07%E -2.39%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.68%E -5.21%K -10.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14%-0.1%2026-07-11 20:09
ProphetX1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-07-11 20:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-07-11 20:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-07-11 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%0.7%2026-07-11 20:10
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-11 19:09
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.4%2026-07-11 20:10
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.5%2026-07-11 20:09
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-07-11 19:20
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%2.2%2026-07-11 20:10