The School of Odds

New York Mets v Boston Red Sox

2026-07-11 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York Mets (Local)

Prediction 57.22%1.75fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%57.28%57.18%59.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.651.7064%60%61%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 42.78%2.34fair odd
EV +0.523%
Edge +0.223%
Kelly +0.387%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%42.72%42.82%43.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.252.252.3545%45%44%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -10.16%E -6.47%K -17.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +0.523%E +0.223%K +0.387%G +0.002%6.2%2026-07-11 08:19
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -2.72%E -1.60%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -1.19%E -0.514%K -0.907%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-11 05:44
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.62%E -0.703%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 05:34
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.62%E -0.703%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 05:34
Svenska Spel1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.62%E -0.703%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 05:34
FanDuel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -5.01%E -3.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 05:19
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 04:24
Casumo1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 04:24
Unibet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 04:24
Bally Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 04:25
betPARX1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 04:24
ATG (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 04:24
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -3.33%E -1.47%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 05:35
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.29%E -1.95%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-11 08:19
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.29%E -1.95%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-11 08:49
TAB1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -3.86%E -2.30%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-11 05:24
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 08:19
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 05:24
ReBet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 08:14
Bovada1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 05:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-11 06:29
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 08:14
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 05:20
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 05:19
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 05:19
Hard Rock Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 08:29
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 05:19
BetRivers1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 04:25
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 04:25
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 04:24
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 04:24
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.30%E -4.50%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 05:20
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.18%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 05:39
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.61%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-11 08:14
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.87%E -4.89%K -12.90%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.61%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-11 04:24
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.29%E -1.95%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -5.04%E -2.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 08:11
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -5.04%E -2.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 08:14
NordicBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.01%E -3.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.04%E -2.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 05:24
Betsson1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.01%E -3.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.04%E -2.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 05:29
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.86%E -2.30%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 08:19
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 06:09
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 08:14
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.44%E -2.66%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 06:24
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.01%E -3.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 08:14
Betclic (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 08:15
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 08:18
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.58%E -3.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 07:19
Unibet (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 08:19
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.15%E -3.75%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.76I 56.82%NM 57.49%2.38I 42.02%NM 42.51%-1.2%2026-07-11 08:19
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-11 07:54
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-11 08:50
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%1.9%2026-07-11 08:49
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-07-11 08:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%2.6%2026-07-11 06:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%2.6%2026-07-11 06:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%2.6%2026-07-11 06:29
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%4.8%2026-07-11 08:49
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%10.1%2026-07-11 08:15