La escuela de los momios

Minnesota Twins v Miami Marlins

Inicio: 2026-05-12 23:41 UTC

Final: Minnesota Twins 3–0 Miami Marlins

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Predicción 50.01%2.00momio equitativo
EV +0.027%
Ventaja +0.013%
Kelly +0.027%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.85%50.03%50.00%52.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.901.912.0054.64%52.69%52.36%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Predicción 49.99%2.00momio equitativo
EV +0.973%
Ventaja +0.482%
Kelly +0.954%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.78%49.97%50.00%51.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.851.931.912.0254.05%51.88%52.36%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -7.48%E -4.04%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV +0.973%E +0.482%K +0.954%G +0.009%3.6%2026-05-12 23:00
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -7.48%E -4.04%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-12 23:00
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -7.48%E -4.04%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-12 23:00
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
Unibet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
Bally Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -0.027%E -0.013%K -0.027%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-12 23:00
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -1.03%E -0.518%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 23:00
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -1.03%E -0.518%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 23:00
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -1.53%E -0.775%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-12 23:00
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -8.48%E -4.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -1.53%E -0.775%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-12 23:00
1xBet1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -1.97%E -1.01%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -2.03%E -1.03%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-12 23:15
Pinnacle1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -1.97%E -1.01%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%EV -2.03%E -1.03%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-12 23:30
BetAnything1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.47%E -1.27%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.53%E -1.30%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-12 20:40
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -3.03%E -1.56%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-12 20:35
BetUS1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -1.47%E -0.748%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -3.53%E -1.83%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-12 23:39
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.53%E -1.83%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-12 23:40
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -7.48%E -4.04%K -8.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.53%E -1.83%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-12 19:15
BetOnline.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -0.473%E -0.238%K -0.478%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -4.03%E -2.10%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-12 23:10
LowVig.ag1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -0.473%E -0.238%K -0.478%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -4.03%E -2.10%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-12 23:10
GTbets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -0.473%E -0.238%K -0.478%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -4.03%E -2.10%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-12 23:10
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.97%E -2.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.03%E -2.10%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-12 20:05
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV +0.027%E +0.013%K +0.027%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-12 19:10
ReBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -2.47%E -1.27%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-12 23:38
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 21:50
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 19:10
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 19:10
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 19:10
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-11 18:19
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 12:14
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 18:55
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 16:35
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 16:35
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 16:35
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.97%E -2.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 21:10
SportsBet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.47%E -2.90%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 20:35
Betway1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.47%E -3.46%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.53%E -2.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 23:40
MyBookie.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -2.47%E -1.27%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-12 23:40
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -3.97%E -2.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 23:39
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.97%E -2.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 17:35
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.97%E -2.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 20:45
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.97%E -2.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 20:45
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.97%E -2.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 16:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.97%E -2.62%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 16:35
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.97%E -3.18%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 23:40
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -7.48%E -4.04%K -8.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.03%E -2.64%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 23:30
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.47%E -1.80%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.53%E -2.92%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 23:38
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -3.97%E -2.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.53%E -2.92%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 23:39
Betr (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.53%E -2.92%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 23:39
Dabble (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -3.97%E -2.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -6.03%E -3.20%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 23:39
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -3.97%E -2.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -6.03%E -3.20%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 23:39
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%EV -6.98%E -3.75%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -6.03%E -3.20%K -6.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 23:40
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.47%E -1.27%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.53%E -3.49%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-12 23:09
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.47%E -1.27%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.53%E -3.49%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-12 23:35
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.47%E -2.34%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.53%E -3.49%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 23:40
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.47%E -3.46%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.53%E -3.49%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 21:15
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -5.47%E -2.90%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -7.52%E -4.07%K -8.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 23:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-05-12 23:40
BetOpenly1.96I 51.02%NM 50.63%2.01I 49.75%NM 49.37%0.8%2026-05-12 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%0.8%2026-05-12 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%0.8%2026-05-12 23:35
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-05-12 21:25
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-05-12 23:40
ProphetX2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%1.1%2026-05-12 23:40
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-05-12 23:15
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%2.6%2026-05-12 23:40
Novig1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%2.9%2026-05-12 23:40