The School of Odds

Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres

2026-07-25 20:11 UTC — MLB

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Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 54.95%1.82fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +2.57%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.91%54.86%55.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.681.751.751.8660%57%57%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 45.05%2.22fair odd
EV -0.892%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.743%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.09%45.14%47.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050%48%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV +2.21%E +1.19%K +2.57%G +0.057%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -6.75%E -3.26%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-24 18:50
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.09%E -0.605%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-24 19:39
GTbets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -0.892%E -0.406%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-24 20:15
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -1.79%E -0.823%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-24 20:20
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -1.79%E -0.823%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-24 20:15
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -3.14%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-24 20:20
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-24 17:50
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-24 19:49
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-24 20:15
Fliff1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.74%E -1.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-24 19:15
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.29%E -1.87%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.30%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-24 20:20
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.29%E -1.87%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-24 18:05
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.84%E -2.19%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-24 20:25
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.84%E -2.19%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.30%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 17:50
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.84%E -2.19%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-24 17:49
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.14%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 20:20
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.14%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-24 20:20
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.39%E -2.52%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -4.05%E -1.90%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-24 20:20
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.50%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 20:20
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 20:18
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 20:20
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 20:20
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 20:20
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 20:20
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.48%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 20:19
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -5.48%E -3.19%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -5.85%E -2.80%K -5.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 20:25
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.14%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 20:20
ReBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.03%E -3.53%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 20:20
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 20:20
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -7.68%E -4.57%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 20:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%-0.0%2026-07-24 17:50
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-24 19:40
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%3.7%2026-07-24 20:25
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%10.2%2026-07-24 20:20
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.79%1xBet 1.86 (54.2%) / GTbets 2.20 (45.8%)Show all 3 combinations
Miami Marlins (Local)San Diego Padres (Visit)Margin
1xBet 1.86 (54.2%)GTbets 2.20 (45.8%)+0.788%
1xBet 1.86 (54.0%)BetOnline.ag 2.18 (46.0%)+0.366%
1xBet 1.86 (54.0%)LowVig.ag 2.18 (46.0%)+0.366%