La scuola delle quote

Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies

Inizio: 2026-05-04 22:41 UTC

Finale: Miami Marlins 0–1 Philadelphia Phillies

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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60 bookmaker (19 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Miami Marlins (Casa)

Previsione 50.68%1.97quota equa
EV -2.18%
Vantaggio -1.13%
Kelly -2.35%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.93

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
50.00%50.65%50.66%51.41%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.851.891.881.9354.05%53.02%53.19%51.81%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Philadelphia Phillies (Trasferta)

Previsione 49.32%2.03quota equa
EV -0.377%
Vantaggio -0.187%
Kelly -0.370%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.02

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
48.59%49.35%49.34%50.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.871.931.932.0253.48%51.72%51.81%49.50%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (60 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaMargineAggiornamento
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -2.18%E -1.13%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -1.86%E -0.933%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-04 20:39
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.69%E -1.40%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.31%E -2.76%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 13:55
Pinnacle1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%EV -0.377%E -0.187%K -0.370%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-04 22:39
Svenska Spel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.34%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-04 20:40
ReBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-04 22:34
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-04 20:40
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 22:10
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 20:34
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 03:00
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 22:34
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 13:50
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 13:55
BetOnline.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
LowVig.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
GTbets1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
BetUS1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:38
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 22:34
MyBookie.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 22:38
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 15:25
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:50
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:50
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:49
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV -4.21%E -2.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-04 20:44
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV -4.21%E -2.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-04 20:44
SportsBet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.21%E -2.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 20:39
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 22:30
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
Virgin Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:39
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 22:39
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 21:04
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 22:39
Hard Rock Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 20:34
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:34
Betway1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:39
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:34
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 20:14
Bovada1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.34%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 22:39
Marathon Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 22:39
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 22:39
Dabble (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 22:39
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-04 22:38
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 22:30
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 22:30
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 22:30
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-04 22:28
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (10)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-05-04 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-05-04 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-05-04 22:40
Polymarket1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-05-04 22:40
ProphetX1.93I 51.81%NM 51.26%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.74%1.1%2026-05-04 22:40
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36%1.8%2026-05-04 20:35
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%1.8%2026-05-04 22:40
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-05-04 22:40
Novig1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-05-04 22:40
BetOpenly1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%2.6%2026-05-04 22:39