L’École des cotes

Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-04 22:41 UTC

Score final : Miami Marlins 0–1 Philadelphia Phillies

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prévision 50.68%1.97cote équitable
EV -2.18%
Avantage -1.13%
Kelly -2.35%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.93

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.00%50.65%50.66%51.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.851.891.881.9354.05%53.02%53.19%51.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Philadelphia Phillies (Visiteur)

Prévision 49.32%2.03cote équitable
EV -0.377%
Avantage -0.187%
Kelly -0.370%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.59%49.35%49.34%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.871.931.932.0253.48%51.72%51.81%49.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -2.18%E -1.13%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -1.86%E -0.933%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-04 20:39
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.69%E -1.40%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.31%E -2.76%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 13:55
Pinnacle1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%EV -0.377%E -0.187%K -0.370%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-04 22:39
Svenska Spel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -3.34%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-04 20:40
ReBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-04 22:34
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-04 20:40
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 22:10
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 20:34
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 03:00
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 22:34
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 13:50
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.20%E -1.67%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 13:55
BetOnline.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
LowVig.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
GTbets1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
BetUS1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:38
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -0.870%E -0.433%K -0.861%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-04 22:39
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 22:34
MyBookie.ag1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-04 22:38
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 15:25
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:50
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:50
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.70%E -1.95%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 13:49
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV -4.21%E -2.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-04 20:44
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV -4.21%E -2.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-04 20:44
SportsBet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.21%E -2.23%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 20:39
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-04 22:30
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
Virgin Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:45
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:44
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 20:40
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -4.72%E -2.51%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:39
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 22:39
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 21:04
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 22:39
Hard Rock Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 20:34
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:34
Betway1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:39
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-04 22:34
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.23%E -2.79%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.77%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 20:14
Bovada1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -3.34%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-04 22:39
Marathon Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.32%E -2.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 22:39
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%EV -5.73%E -3.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -7.28%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 22:39
Dabble (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.83%E -1.96%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-04 22:39
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-04 22:38
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 22:30
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 22:30
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.80%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 22:30
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.24%E -3.37%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -6.30%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-04 22:28
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-05-04 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-05-04 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-05-04 22:40
Polymarket1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-05-04 22:40
ProphetX1.93I 51.81%NM 51.26%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.74%1.1%2026-05-04 22:40
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36%1.8%2026-05-04 20:35
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%1.8%2026-05-04 22:40
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-05-04 22:40
Novig1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-05-04 22:40
BetOpenly1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%2.6%2026-05-04 22:39